黎巴嫩：技术援助报告政府人员支出：中期支出范围界定

LEBANON Government Personnel Spending: Scoping a March 2026 Prepared By Authoring Department:Fiscal Affairs Department The contents of this document constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the InternationalMonetary Fund to the authorities of the Lebanon Ministry of Finance (the "CD recipient") in response totheir request for technical assistance. Unless the CD recipient specifically objects to such disclosure, thisdocument (in whole or in part) or summaries thereof may be disclosed by the IMF to the IMF ExecutiveDirector for Lebanon, to other IMF Executive Directors and members of their staff, as well as to other The analysis and policy considerations expressed in this publication are those of Fiscal Affairs International Monetary Fund, IMF PublicationsP.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A.T. +(1) 202.623.7430 F. +(1) 202.623.7201publications@IMF.orgIMF.org/pubs Contents A. Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................9B. Background and Issues ..........................................................................................................................10 II. Baseline, Scenarios and Policy Directions ........................................................................................17 A. Developing an Illustrative Baseline.........................................................................................................17B. Alternative Scenarios for Personnel Spending.......................................................................................20C. Policy Directions .....................................................................................................................................23D. Next Steps ..............................................................................................................................................26 Box 1. Three Case Studies of Regular Wage Setting: UK and Ireland, Denmark and Romania ......................25 Figures 1. Composition of Current Primary Government Spending, 2024 ..............................................................102. General Government Spending and Revenues......................................................................................113. Recent Trends in Public Compensation for Employees .........................................................................124. International Comparisons of Government Salaries and Benefits Spending to GDP.............................145. Structure of Compensation in 2024 ........................................................................................................166. A Baseline Scenario for Personnel Spending.........................................................................................18 Tables Executive Summary Table. Government Personnel Spending (Illustrative Baseline), Billions of US$ ........81. Personnel Spending Estimates, 2019-2025, in Billions of LBP ..............................................................132. Estimated Employment and Compensation, 2025, in Billions of LBP (for Spending Data)....................153: Assumptions and Results for the Baseline Scenario ..............................................................................184. An Illustrative Baseline Scenario of Personnel Spending, in Billions of LBP, 2019 (Real).....................195. Summary of Alternative Scenarios, Difference in Personnel Spending from Baseline (in Percent ofGDP) ...........................................................................................................................................................22 Annexes Additional Information and Data Sources ...................................................................................................27 Acronyms and Abbreviations BdLBanque du LibanCDCapacity DevelopmentCOLACost of Living AdjustmentCPIConsumer Price IndexCSBCivil Service BoardEOSIEnd of Service IndemnityFADFiscal Affairs Department(IMF)GDPGross Domestic ProductHRMISHuman Resource Management Information SystemILOInternational Labour OrganizationIMFInternational Monetary FundLBPLVALebanese PoundLatest Value AvailableMEHEMinistry of Education and Higher EducationMoFMinistry of FinanceMTBFMedium-Term Budget FrameworkOECDOrganization for Economic Cooperation and DevelopmentPEPersonnel ExpenditurePIPublic InstitutionsSOEState Owned EnterpriseTVETTechnical and Vocational Education and Training Preface At the request of the Minister of Finance, a team from the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) visitedBeirut during the period August 25-29 to conduct a technical assistance mission on Public CompensationManagement. The mission was led by Mr. Nick Carroll and comprised of Mr. Huy Nguyen (FAD). The The mission held meetings with the Ministry of Finance, led by the Minister of Finance, H.E. Mr. YassineJaber. The team is grateful for the support of Ms. Lami