中国宏观经济追踪：开局良好，后续政策需加力

EconomicsChina A good start, moremovesto follow ◆Despite thegood startto the year,policiesstill need to be Erin XinSenior Economist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitederin.y.xin@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6975 ◆Building a unified national market is the State Council's toppriority;likelyto seered & green lights for local governments Taylor WangEconomist, ChinaThe Hongkong andShanghai Banking Corporation Limitedtaylor.t.l.wang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 8650 ◆Paris talks“constructive”, buta Section 301 probemaymeanaddedtariffs; China-USpresidents’summit potentially delayed Jing LiuChief Economist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedjing.econ.liu@hsbc.com.hk+852 3941 0063 NPCwrapped:Policies will be rolled out rapidly to support economic growth China’s week-long annual policy-making conference concluded on 12 March.Policymakers reaffirmed their commitment tosupporting economic growth, while setting amore flexible 4.5-5% growth target. This stance supports a strong start to the15thFive- Heidi LiAssociateGuangzhou Year Plan, while maintaining room for reform, structural adjustment, and riskmanagement.Proactive fiscal support isexpected to continue in 2026, with an emphasis on infrastructure investment and improving livelihoods. Key policy priorities include EconomicactivityinJanuary and February pointedto asolidstart to the15thFive-YearPlan(China activity,16 March). Sustained growthwillhinge on rapid, consistent policyexecution. At the State Council executive meeting on 13 March,PremierLi emphasisedgreater urgency and stronger delivery to achievemeasurable results.On 16 March, 1) Building a unified national market.The fact that a unifiednational market waslisted as the first task reinforces the view that “anti-involution” will step up.Recall thatit was the State Councilthatissued specifictargetsto adjust supply duringthesupply-side structural reform 1.0a decade ago.We anticipate that regulators will step 2) Expanding and upgrading services.The 15th FYP explicitly prioritises serviceconsumption and service-sector upgrading to support consumption growth. TheGovernment Work Report also highlights a shift from supporting consumption beyondgoods, which will be taken via a new RMB100bn fiscal-financial coordination tool HSBC Global Investment Summit 14 to 16 April 2026 Find out more Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com 3) Developing intelligent manufacturing.While policymakers stressed maintaining areasonable share of manufacturing in GDP, its upgrading shows China’s ambition to shift frombeing “big” to becoming “strong”. Key growth sectors include AI, cloud, quantum,biomanufacturing, semiconductors, embodied AI, brain-computer interfaces and 6G. The 4) Implementing major infrastructure networks.The rebound in infrastructure investment inJan-Feb shows Beijing’s efforts to front-load fiscal support is yielding positive results. The addedfiscal funding support from the NPC as well as Premier Li’s comments further reinforce the viewthat infrastructure investment will likely remain a key growth driver. We expect infrastructure 5) Investing in people and livelihoods.Stronger social welfare coverage, including raisingpension benefits to gig workers and rural elderlypopulation,andproviding equal public services tomigrant workers, should see more progressoverthe next five years. Fiscal measures that support 6) Responding to external shocks.China now frames high-level openingup and traderebalancing as a resilience strategy to respond totheuncertain external environment. On theone hand, China will continue to diversify its exports map to weather tariff challenges from anysingle country. Meanwhile, China also pledges to actively expand imports as a strategy to better US-China relations:constructiveParismeeting, butpresidents’summit may be delayed On 16 March, US Treasury Secretary BessentandChinese Vice Premier He Lifengconcludedtwo days of talks in Paristosupport preparations for a leaders’ meeting.Both sides describedtalks as “constructive”, covering US tariffs, bilateral trade and investment, China’s rare earth Following recent changes,theremoval of IEEPA tariffs and introduction of a 10% global tariffunder Section 122,the US weighted tariff on Chinais now24.6%(assuming about 50%exemption for steel-related products).Lookingahead, the US Section 301 investigation into alleged unfair trade practices,covering China and several other trading partners and potentiallyconcluding in July,could result in additional tariffs, addingreneweduncertainty toChina’s The China-USsummit, originally scheduled for 31 March–2 April,maybepostponedafterPresidentTrump asked to delay it by “amonth or so” in light of the US-Iran conflict, alongsidecalls for support