从结果会议中汲取的经验教训

Takeaways from post-results meeting Target PriceHK$32.00Up/Downside25.4%Current PriceHK$25.52 Chuangxin hostedapost-resultsanalyst meeting yesterday(19 Mar).Questionsweremostly aroundtheprogress ofaluminiumcapacity construction in SaudiArabia as well as the acquisition of coal mine through connected transaction.Key takeaways:(1) Saudi project is in good progresswith no disruption so far;(2) the all-in production cost in Saudi is expected to be US$1,900/t, which is~RMB1,000/t lower than that in China; (3) the coal mine to be acquired will needRMB3bn capex, which will be spent in 2027E-28E. Chuangxin’s share dropped10%yesterday, which we believe was due to concerns on (1) the additionalcapex on coal mine; and (2) rising aluminium inventory in the market. We seethe pullback as entry opportunity given the limited scale of coal mining businessand the overall tight supply of aluminium. MaintainBUYwith TP of HK$32(based on 13x 2026E P/E).CMBI will hostaNDR conference call on23Mar(14:00 HKT).Please contact your sales representative for details. China Materials Wayne FUNG, CFA(852) 3900 0826waynefung@cmbi.com.hk Jake Zhang(852) 3900 0849jakezhang@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Saudi Arabia aluminium project:The project is located in Yanbu (at thecoastal region of Red Sea), which is 1,200km away fromthePersian Gulf.Management reveals thatthere has beenno disruption on both constructionand logistics so far.The project(500kt for phase one)is expected tocommence operation in 1H27. Ingots will be produced at the beginning,followed by alloy products(for Apple supply chain and lightweight materialsfor automotive)in 2H27.Chuangxin has signed a 10-year agreement withSaudiMinistry of Energy for power supply,with electricity tariff ofUS$0.032/kWh (heavy oil as power source). Chuangxin expects an all-inproduction cost of US$1,900/t of aluminium in Saudi. Renewable power constructionin China:750MW of renewable powerinstalled capacitywas completed by end-2025(Wind: 650MW +Solar:100MW).The remaining 1GW is expected to come online this year.Management expects 3bn/5bn kWh of power will be generated byrenewable capacity in 2026E/27E(total annual power usage: 10bn kWh),which will help reduce the cost of electricity from RMB0.295/kWh in 2025 toRMB0.275/kWh in 2026E. The developmentplanof Tongliao Smart Mining:The coal mine (to beacquired) has planned annual capacity of 6mt, which willmatch withthecoaldemand from Chuangxin’s captive coal power plant. Management revealsthat capex for capacity constructionwill be RMB3bn, whichwill be spentbetween 2H27 and 1H28.The mine is expected to commence operation byend-2028. The all-in cost is expected to be RMB195/t. Related reports: Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK)–2025profit +33% YoY; surprising dividend–18 Mar 2026 (link) Capexplan:In China, a total of RMB1.5bn capex is budgeted in 2026E,including RMB1.2-1.3bn on renewable power capacity construction.FortheSaudi project, the total capex is US$277mn. So far US$200mn has beenspent and the remaining US$77mn will be spent by end-2026 or early 2027. Production cut in Qatar to furtherincrease supply risks; +ve to aluminiumprice–4 Mar 2026 (link) Potential supply disruption in the MiddleEast will support the aluminium price–2Mar 2026 (link) Aluminium price to be fuelled by tightsupply throughout 2026–4 Feb 2026(link) Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK)-Capacity growth in Saudi Arabia +superb cost advantage on low greenenergy cost in China-4 Feb 2026 (link) Key risks:(1)Unexpected removal of capacity cap in China; (2) volatility of aluminium andalumina prices; (3) power shortage; (4) supply chain disruption; (5) new project executionrisk in SaudiArabia. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analystwho is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personalviews about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither theanalyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report.CMBIGM or its affiliate(s) have investment banking relationship with the issuers covered in this report in preceding 12 months. CMBIGM Ratings : Stock with potential