适应性社会保障议程：从对COVID-19冲击的应对中汲取的教训

SOCIAL PROTECTION DISCUSSION PAPER No. 2509|MARCH 2025 State of Social Protection Report2025The 2-Billion-Person ChallengeBackground Paper #2 Adaptive Social Protection Agenda:Lessons from Responses toCOVID-19 Shock Emil Daniel TesliucMaria Belen Fonteñez © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433Telephone: +1 (202) 473 1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do notnecessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shownon any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement oracceptance of such boundaries. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, inwhole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW,Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: +1 (202) 522 2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Abstract The paper examines the social protection response to the COVID-19 pandemic across 76emerging and developing economies (EDEs) to identify lessons on how to make thesesystems more resilient against risks, shocks, and crises at the individual, household, ornational level. The COVID-19 pandemic triggered significant expansions in socialprotection systems across EDEs, with responses varying based on countries’ existinginfrastructure and income levels. The analysis of 76 EDEs revealed that countries usedapproximately 37 percent of their social protection programs to respond to COVID-19,with social assistance programs being the most frequently used response (73 percent oftotal programs). EDEs increased their real per capita social protection spending by anaverage of 28 percent, with low-income countries (LICs) and high-income countries(HICs) showing the largest increases at around 40 percent and 32 percent, respectively.The effectiveness of responses was strongly correlated with preexisting social protectionsystems,economicconditions,labormarketfactors,anddigitalinfrastructure.Countries with more developed social protection systems, formal labor markets, anddigital payment infrastructure before the pandemic were better positioned to rapidlyscale up their responses, highlighting the importance of maintaining robust routinesocial protection programs and delivery systems to enable effective crisis response. JEL codes:H53, I38, J28, O15 Keywords:social protection system, COVID-19 pandemic, evolution of socialprotection spending, shock response Acknowledgments This paper was prepared by the Social Protection Global Unit at the World Bank as a part ofits flagship report ‘State of Social ProtectionReport 2025: The 2-Billion-Person Challenge.’(World Bank, 2025). The paper was authored by Emil Daniel Tesliuc and Maria Belen Fonteñez, with contributionsfrom Claudia Patricia Rodríguez Alas, Robert Palacios, Johanna Estefania Andrango Brito,and Ana Sofia Martinez Cordova. The authors are grateful for the valuable collaboration withthe peer authors who led other background papers on social protection, social assistance,social insurance, labor market, and gender. This paper was made possible thanks to the Atlas of Social Protection: Indicators ofResilience and Equity (ASPIRE), which served as the primary data source for the analyses.The team is also deeply grateful for the guidance provided by the peer reviewers:AlineCoudouel, David Coady (IMF), Carolina Diaz-Bonilla, Phillippe Leite, Anita Schwarz, JoanaSilva, and Ruslan Yemtsov, at the concept stage, and Brooks Evans (IMF), Ugo Gentilini, RuthHill, Harry Edmund Moroz, and Joana Silva, at the decision stage. The report was produced under the guidance of Iffath Sharif (Global Director, SocialProtection), Michal Rutkowski (former Global Director, Social Protection), and Loli Arribas-Baños (Practice Manager, Social Protection). Lastly, the team benefited from valuablesupport from Matthew Naumann (editor), Fiona Mackintosh (acquisitions editor), AgnesNderakindo Mganga (Program Assistant), and Alexandra Humme (Senior External AffairsOfficer). Table of Contents Abstract .................................................................................................................. 2Acknowledgments ................................................................................................... 3I. Introduction.................................