《七巨头》——风险投资前沿和新的人工智能狂野西部

“A town built around a railroad -youcould make a fortune, huh? Hundredsof thousands of dollars. Hey, morethan that.Thousands of thousands.” Once upon a Time in the West The Magnificent Seven (M7)Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia & Tesla 1.Started from humble beginnings, they're now on top of the world. A powerful vision, relentlesslyexecuted, combined with early venture capital investments evolved into massive wealth andeconomic growth. Today, they invest nearly $400 billion annually into frontier tech (comparable tothe GDP of Norway), of which $20–30 billion in VC rounds (comparable to UK's total VC investment). 2.With a combined value at an all-time high of $14 trillion and a record share of corporate net earnings,they account for 32% of the S&P 500. Even this number understates their true underlying earningspower. 3.Now, as the biggest-ever platform shift in tech unfolds, occurring only every ~20 years, everything isup for grabs again. This time, acquisitions are off the table due to regulatory scrutiny. They dominateera-defining VC deals instead, for now. 4.Mega opportunities are arising in applied AI. The Magnificent 7 are on the hunt for theseopportunities, and AI is bringing them closer within reach. At the same time their home markets feelless defensible than before. 5.This report provides an opportunity to see the world through the eyes of the Magnificent 7.Their perspective compels you to thinkverybig. 1Showdown: high noon at silicon corral2AI know-alls: beyond picks & shovels3Striking gold: mega opportunities in AI4Deals: lock, stock and barrel5Future: uncharted trails From humble beginnings. Crucial initial investment turned into massive wealth and economic growth. Record combined value of $14 trillion,higher than during 2020 tech boom … … and a record share of the S&P 500combined value, at 32.1%. Valuation supportedby massive earningspower: share of S&P500 earnings are alsoat record level. Share of net earnings is currentlyaround 23%. That figure understatestheir underlying earnings power. TheMagnificent 7 invest more of their grossprofit in R&D. Michael Mauboussin estimates that theMagnificent 7's Economic Profit(defined as ROIC – WACC x investedcapital) could be as high 45% of the S&P500. Many of the M7 arevalued at a slightdiscount to themarket. Apple: premium valuation thanksto "safe haven" image, rightly orwrongly Nvidia: a hyped stock, continuedoutperformance expectations Meta: investors don't love the highR&D and Capex Amazon: solid eCommerceperformance but AI strategylagging Alphabet: perceived vulnerability Microsoft: very solid, not hyped Tesla: pivot to robotaxis? Even hyperscalersfeel gravitationalpull. Growthbecomes harder tosustain. Microsoft is the exception: itʼsaccelerating, boosted by its OpenAIpartnership. Apple is facing serious saturation ofits killer product (iPhone). And now the third big platform shift is coming. It seems like everything's up forgrabs. This happens only every 20 or so years. "Some people think there's going tobe very few companies left over,and that it's pretty much verypredictable from here. That point ofview I do not share at all.Everytime there's major technologicalinnovation there's a tremendousopportunity for new players.Fora reorganization of the industry.There is just as much opportunityfor new companies to come alongfor new approaches to be taken." – Steve Jobsin 1991, asCEO of NeXT. IBM wasdominating the field Major acquisitions are basically off the table. This means having one hand tiedbehind their back at a pivotal time. Past acquisitionshave been key forplaying on platformshifts like mobile andvideo. Meta and Alphabetespecially have takenmassive advantage ofM&A as a strategy, inthe past. The result: a biginversion.Acquisitions haveslowed to a halt,while venture capitalactivity is at an alltime high. The Magnificent 7 participated in 208VC deals in 2023. Meanwhile, only 7acquisitions happened. Activision($69B, Microsoft) and smaller oneslike Fungible ($190M, Microsoft) andMX Player ($48M, Amazon). What's going on? Venture capitalinvestment activityby the Magnificent 7is at an all time high. And not just bynumber of deals… Investing $25B a year, more than allventure in the UK combined … … including era-defining companiessuch as OpenAI, Anthropic, Wayve. VC amount of Magnificent 7 deals » Customize data … while in 2023–2024, VC isdominated by the Magnificent 7. During 2016–2019, venture capitalwas dominated by VC firms ... While theMagnificent 7 areamong the worldʼslargest VentureCapital investors,this activity isdwarfed by theirR&D, Capex, andshare buybacks. MagnificentFlywheel: 36% of allR&D spending ofevery tech and techadjacent companyglobally is done bythe Magnificent 7. With energydemands rivallingthat of big countries. Data centers could soon consume up to19% of the US national power usage… … which means Magnificent 7 are turninginto (sustainable) energy companies. Amazon, Go