2025年上半年风险投资技术调查：投资者对人工智能、交易和融资的见解

EMERGING TECH RESEARCHH1 2025 VC Tech Survey: PitchBook Data, Inc. Nizar TarhuniExecutive Vice President ofResearch and Market Intelligence Investor Insights on AI,Dealmaking, and Fundraising Paul CondraGlobal Head of PrivateMarkets Research James UlanDirector of EmergingTechnology Research Institutional Research Group VC investors anticipate tariff-driven supply chainpressures, sustain deal activity with increased scrutiny,decode AI and deep tech investment shifts, and bracefor more conservative funding cycles and exits. Analysis Paul CondraGlobal Head of Private MarketsResearchpaul.condra@pitchbook.com James UlanDirector of Research, EmergingTechnologyjames.ulan@pitchbook.com PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. Kyle Stanford, CAIADirector of Research, US Venturekyle.stanford@pitchbook.com Key takeaways Ali JavaheriResearch Analyst, EmergingSpacesali.javaheri@pitchbook.com •Moderate disruption forecast:84% of survey respondents anticipate at leastmild to moderate impact from US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day”tariff announcements, with 64% expecting higher supply chain costs and 50%foreseeing slowed growth. The manufacturing and semiconductor/hardwaresegments were deemed the most vulnerable to tariff disruption. pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com •Pragmatic dealmaking:Despite 45% of respondents noting increased LP riskaversion, 53% of VC investors are actively hunting for deals—34% with greaterscrutiny—while 25% are dialing back international investments, 44% are pausingfor clarity, and 63% believe trade tensions will spur domestic investment instrategic sectors. PublishingDesigned byMegan Woodard Published on June 2, 2025 Contents •AI-driven sector shifts:The share of survey respondents anticipating AIdisruption in fintech jumped to 52% (from 32% in H2 2024) thanks to advancessuch as automated underwriting and LLM-based copilots. Healthcare disruptionis expected by 45% (up from 38%), enterprise tech remains at about 45%, andthe transportation/logistics disruption outlook fell to 16% (down from 26%). •Evolving AI adoption barriers:The top blocker to AI adoption is a lack of clearuse cases—the cause cited by 45% of respondents—followed by workforce skillgaps and high implementation costs. The number of respondents with regulatoryconcerns around AI eased from 55% to 39%, and bullishness on generative AIstabilized, with 44% of respondents more upbeat and 45% reporting no changein sentiment. •Diversified deep tech allocations:Per survey responses, AI investment is spreadacross healthcare (30%), manufacturing (23%), and infrastructure (27%). Indeep tech, robotics leads at 58% of investment and quantum accounts for 38%.Beyond AI, the most growth capital is drawn by health/biotech (47%) and fintech(38%), although many warn of subsector oversaturation. •Cooling fundraising outlook:Only 38% of survey respondents now expect VCfunding for tech startups to rise (down from 58% in H2 2024), while 28% foreseemoderate declines (up from 9%). The plurality of respondents remains neutral,indicating a shift toward risk-managed expectations rather than panic. •More conservative exits and stakes:34% of respondents report increasingownership stakes—up from 11% of respondents in H2 2024. Only 34% still expectmoderate exit improvements (down from 70%), with 25% predicting stagnationand 28% anticipating an outright decline. Respondents cited key liquidity driversas tariff stability and falling interest rates. •Extended fund cycles and secondary activity:60% of those surveyed planto launch another fund within two years, but many are stretching timelines tothree-to-five years or delaying altogether. Secondary markets are becoming anincreasingly popular liquidity outlet. Executive summary The H1 2025 VC Tech Survey, which gathered responses from 32 venture capitalinvestors, offers a detailed snapshot of how the industry is adjusting to anincreasingly uncertain macroeconomic environment shaped by trade policy,evolving AI dynamics, and a shifting fundraising landscape. Compared with theH22024VC Tech Survey, the responses in this edition reflect a mood of recalibrationrather than retreat—VC investors are responding not with panic but with strategicadjustments as they navigate geopolitical uncertainty and technological transition. Trade tensions, particularly following US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day”tariff announcements, remain top of mind for many investors. A combined 84% ofrespondents expect these measures to cause at least mild to moderate disruption,with the most cited consequences being increased supply chain costs and curtailedgrowth initiatives. Ironically, the sectors that survey takers identified as being mostexposed to harm—manufacturing and semiconductors/hardware—are preciselythose the tariffs aim to shield. This misalignment has investors questioni