结构性改革促进增长：老挝人民民主共和国

Structural Reforms to LiftGrowth Lao People's Democratic Republic Weining Xin and Liangliang Zhu SIP/2026/023 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on January27, 2026. This paper isalso published separately as IMF Country Report No 2026/051. 2026MAR IMF Selected Issues Paper Asia and Pacific Department Structural Reforms to Lift Growth: Lao People's Democratic RepublicPrepared byWeining Xin and Liangliang Zhu (APD) Authorized for distribution by Angana BanerjiMarch2026 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on January27, 2026. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No.2026/051. ABSTRACT:Against the backdrop of improved macroeconomic stability and LaoPeople’s DemocraticRepublic (Lao PDR)’s ambition to achieve upper-middle-income (UMI) status by 2035, this paper examines theimpact of structural reforms on Lao PDR’s growth outcomes. The analysis documents the significant structuralgaps in Lao PDR relative to upper middle-income countries (UMICs), especially in governance, businessregulations, labor market and human development. These gaps suggest there is substantial scope for structuralreforms in Lao PDR to catch up with its aspirational peers and boost potential growth. Cross-country evidencesuggests that structural reforms significantly boost output over time, with a persistent positive impact whichcumulates over time. Thus, implementing ambitious structural reforms—to strengthen governance, improve thebusiness environment, and promote human development—to close structural gaps with UMICs would deliverlarge growth gains, especially over the medium term, and help Lao PDR achieve its development goal in asustainable manner. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Xin, Weining and Liangliang Zhu, 2026. Structural Reforms to Lift Growth. IMFSelected Issues Paper (SIP/2026/023). Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund SELECTED ISSUESPAPERS Structural Reforms to Lift Growth Lao People's Democratic Republic Prepared byWeining Xin and Liangliang Zhu1 LAO PEOPLE'SDEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByAsia and PacificDepartment Prepared ByWeining Xin and Liangliang Zhu (APD) CONTENTS A. Current Structural Gaps ______________________________________________________________ 3B. Cross-Country Evidence on Output Gains from Structural Reforms __________________ 6C. Growth Dividends for Lao PDR from Ambitious Structural Reforms _________________10D. Conclusions_________________________________________________________________________ 10 References_____________________________________________________________________________ 11 STRUCTURAL REFORMS TO LIFT GROWTH Against the backdrop of improved macroeconomic stability and Lao PDR’s ambition to achieveupper-middle-income (UMI) status by 2035, this paper examines the impact of structural reforms onLao PDR’s growth outcomes. The analysis documents the significant structural gaps in Lao PDR relativeto upper middle-income countries (UMICs), especially in governance, business regulations, labormarket and human development. These gaps suggest there is substantial scope for structural reformsin Lao PDR to catch up with its aspirational peers and boost potential growth. Cross-country evidencesuggests that structural reforms significantly boost output over time, with a persistent positive impactwhich cumulates over time. Thus, implementing ambitious structural reforms—to strengthengovernance, improve the business environment, and promote human development—to close structuralgaps with UMICs would deliver large growth gains, especially over the medium term, and help LaoPDR achieve its development goal in a sustainable manner. 1.The government’s overarching goal is for Lao PDR to achieve UMI status by 2035.While on track to meet this goal before the pandemic, the pandemic and external shocks have eroded GNI per capita, requiring growth of atleast 5 percent annually to achieve this goalby 2035.1The draft 10thNationalSocio-Economic Development Plan (NSEDP)sets a growth target of 6 percent annuallyfor 2026–30. The pre-pandemic growthstrategy comprising unsustainableexpansionary fiscal and monetary policies ledto debt distress and double-digit inflation,reducing policy space for economic support.As Lao PDR continues to stabilize itseconomy, it is critical to set policy priorities that can lay the groundwork for durable high growth without jeopardizing economic stability. 2.Ambitious structural reforms would be essential to lift growth significantly and sustainably.Under the baseline forecasts which assume unchanged policy, growth is expected tomoderate to some 3 percent over the medium term, reflecting slower labor force and productivi