老挝人民民主共和国的食品通胀

Food Inflation in the Lao PDR:Trends, Drivers, and ImpactsPublic Disclosure Authorized Policy Note Food Inflation in the Lao PDR:Trends, Drivers, and Impacts © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington,DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved. This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, andconclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board of ExecutiveDirectors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data includedin this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do notimply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsementor acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of theWorld Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions ThisworkisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit,and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2024. Food Inflation in the Lao PDR: Trends, Drivers, andImpacts. Washington, DC: World Bank. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This translation was not created by the World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation.the World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This is an adaptation of an original work by the World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are thesole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by the World Bank. Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained withinthe work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party owned individual componentor part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting fromsuch infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibilityto determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner.Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 HStreet NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. AcknowledgmentsThis policy note was prepared by Kimsun Tong and Tanida Arayavechkit. The authors wish to thank Alexander Kremer, Rinku Murgai, Pedro Miguel Gaspar Martins, Obert Pimhidzai, and Konesawang Nghardsaysone for their valuablefeedback and guidance. Special thanks are also due to Keomanivone Phimmahasay and Phetnidda Ouankhamchanfor their valuable inputs for the study. The authors appreciate the Lao Statistics Bureau for providing the data used inthis note, as well as the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, the Ministry ofIndustry and Commerce, and the Macroeconomic Research Institute for their invaluable insights, which have greatlyenriched the content of this work. Cover design:Janet Pontin,Layout:Paul Bloxham,Photo:World Bank © Philippe Aramburu Contents Key Messagesiv1Introduction12Trends in Food Price Inflation23Drivers of Food Price Inflation54Spatial Price Transmission: The Case of Rice, Pork, and Chicken125Welfare Implications of Food Price Inflation166Policy Implications21Annex 1: Price Transmission Methodology24Annex 2: Welfare Cost of Exchange Rate Depreciation35References36 Key Messages Food price inflation in the Lao PDR has surged into double digits since mid-2022, outpacing globaland regional trends.Exchange rate depreciation caused food inflation to accelerate more rapidly than coreinflation. Rice exhibits greater volatility compared to overall food prices and other unprocessed foods. Foodinflation increased at a faster pace in the northern region, which is characterized by provinces with a deficit instaple foods and a higher reliance on food imports. Domestic food prices are influenced by a combination of external and domestic factors.When a countryextensively imports or exports food, its domestic food markets become integrated with international foodmarkets.