支持范围还是强度？适应性社会保护以减少与灾害相关的贫困

Coverage or Intensity of Support? Adaptive Social Protection to Reduce Disaster-Related Poverty Robin MiddelanisBramka Arga JafinoYasuhiro Kawasoe Urban, Disaster Risk Management,Resilience and Land Global DepartmentMarch 2026 A verified reproducibility package for this paper isavailable athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefor direct access. Policy Research Working Paper11334 Abstract Disasters due to natural hazards pose a significant threat topeople’s well-being and increase the risk of poverty, particu-larly in vulnerable populations. This paper provides a novelglobal estimate of poverty due to disasters, showing that25.6 million people are at risk of poverty due to disasters,12.7 million thereof facing extreme poverty. Disaster-re-lated consumption losses amount to $758 billion and causewell-being losses equivalent to a uniform drop in consump-tion of $1,143 billion. Adaptive social protection aims tomitigate these risks by integrating social protection, disas-ter risk management, and climate adaptation to enhancedisaster resilience. Yet, given limited resources, finding theright balance between coverage (the breadth of the popu-lation reached by the measure) and intensity (the extent to which each beneficiary is supported) of policy measures ischallenging. The paper systematically analyzes this trade-offfor various adaptive social protection measures across 131countries. Total benefits are usually largest for the scenarioswith the most extensive coverage and intensity, but theoptimal expansion path differs between measures and bycountry income groups. The results suggest that prioritizinga measure’s intensity while focusing on lower-income pop-ulations is generally the most effective approach to reducesocio-economic disaster impacts. While this pattern holdsacross all income groups, lower-income countries benefitmore strongly from early coverage increases than higher-in-come countries. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. CoverageorIntensityofSupport?AdaptiveSocialProtectiontoReduceDisaster-RelatedPoverty R.Middelanis,aB.A.Jafino,aY.Kawasoea aTheWorldBank Keywords:adaptive social protection, disasters, poverty, well-being, risk reduction JEL codes:D31, D61, I38, O20, Q54 This paper was supported by the Japan-World Bank Program for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management in DevelopingCountries, financed by the Government of Japan with technical support from the World Bank Tokyo Disaster RiskManagement Hub. The authors are grateful to Jun Rentschler, Edmundo Murrugarra, Alejandro De la Fuente, andStéphane Hallegatte for the fruitful discussions and their thoughtful comments and suggestions. 1Introduction Disasters pose a severe risk to society and human well-being. Besides the immediate danger to human lives, disaster-relateddamages to physical assets can adversely affect people’s livelihoods. When people lose assets on which they depend toafford their everyday lives, they oftentimes have to reduce consumption due to foregone income (Arouri et al., 2015; Baezet al., 2017), or to smooth their assets and pay for reconstruction (Noy et al., 2021). As a result, people can be pushed intopoverty (Baez et al., 2018) and, in extreme cases, fall into ”poverty traps” from which they cannot recover on their own (Carteret al., 2007). Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) seeks to safeguard the well-being of poor and vulnerable households by preventingthem from falling into poverty or becoming trapped in it due to the adverse effects of covariate shocks. It achieves this byintegrating social protection, disaster risk management, and climate change adaptation efforts to bolster the resilience ofthe most marginalized communities against shocks, such as natural hazard related disasters (Arnall et al., 2010; Davieset al., 2009). Thus, ASP extends beyond purely ex post disaster shock response, integrating elements of ex ante exposureand vulnerability to disasters. In a broader context, this integration is central to achieving Universal Social Protection (USP),which aims for all people to have access to systems that protect against poverty and risks throughout their lives (World BankGroup, 2022). Adaptive, shock-responsive systems have been identified as a strategic priority for realizing USP, particularlyin disaster-prone contexts where repeated shocks can undermin