半导体：OFC 2026会议要点总结

Keytakeawaysfor OFC2026 TheOptical Fiber Communication Conference and Exposition(OFC)2026reinforced a broader structural shift: AI-driven scaling is forcing a re-architectureof data center interconnects across both optical and electrical domains. Theconference highlighted continued debate around CPO vs. pluggable optics,emergence of intermediate architectureslikeLPO/NPO, new form factors likeXPO,and increasing attention on optical circuit switch(OCS)as acomplementary layer. Rather than converging on a single solution, the industry China Semiconductors Sector Kevin ZHANG(852) 3761 8727kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk Aaron GUO(852) 3916 3715aaronguo@cmbi.com.hk Pluggable modules remain core, with supply constraints becomingmore visible.800G continues to anchor current volume deployment, while1.6T is in early ramp and 3.2T is being defined via 400G/lane. On the supplyside, Lumentum(LITE US, NR)highlighted >50% EML capacity expansionby end-CY26 vs. CY25, following an earlier ~40%InP expansion plan(already partially delivered), and guided ~85% CAGR in AI data center InPlane demand through CY30. Coherent(COHR US, NR)’smgmt.similarly XPO signals architectural evolution, not disruption.Arista(ANET US,NR)introduced XPO, a 12.8T liquid-cooled optical module targeting upto204.8T front-panel density per rack unit, while preserving key pluggableadvantages such as manufacturability, configurability, and serviceability. Inour view, XPO represents an intermediate scaling architecture that alleviates 400G/lane shifts the bottleneck from optics to electrical.Lumentumpositioned 400G differential EML as the likely path toward 3.2T, whileCoherent demonstrated both EML andSiPhoapproaches, indicating that thephotonic side is becoming technically viable. Broadcom(AVGO US, NR)further advanced module-side readiness with a 400G optical DSP alongsideits EML/PD stack. Importantly,Nvidia’s(NVDA US, NR)NVLink roadmapalready targets 400G SerDes per lane, confirming demand formation(link). OCS is transitioning from concept to commercialization.Coherent nowestimates a ~US$4bnSAM for OCS, reflecting its evolution into a core AIdata center optimization layer rather than a nicheswitchalternative.ThevalueofOCSis most evident in scale-out and scale-across architectures,wheredynamic bandwidth allocation and cluster re-partitioning canmaterially improve GPU utilization, rather thanin tightly coupled scale-up Source:Lumentum Source: Lumentum Source:Arista Source:Arista Disclosures& Disclaimers AnalystCertification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report. Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar daysprior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next12 months: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on the or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed.This report is not and should not be construed as anoffer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or any interest insecurities or enter into any transaction.NeitherCMBIGMno