Hanesbrands Inc. 和 Kontoor Brands, Inc. 管理层会议要点总结

Restricted - External U.S. Specialty Retail, Apparel & FootwearNEUTRALUnchangedU.S. Specialty Retail, Apparel &FootwearPaul Kearney+1 212 526 1964paul.kearney@barclays.comBCI, USAdrienne Yih+1 212 526 5257adrienne.yih@barclays.comBCI, USMichael Vu+1 212 526 9568michael.vu@barclays.comBCI, USAngus Kelleher+1 212 526 0081angus.kelleherferguson@barclays.comBCI, US Valuation Methodology and RisksU.S. Specialty Retail, Apparel & FootwearHanesbrands Inc. (HBI / HBI)Valuation Methodology:Our price target of $6 is based on an NTM P/E multiple of 10x our CY26 EPS of $0.56.Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Valuation and Price Target:Risks to the upside on our Equal Weight ratinginclude the following: 1) Wholesale ordering accelerates, 2) Price increasesoffsetcost inflation, and 3) cost savings drives margin expansion. Risks tothe downside on our Equal Weight rating include the following: 1) canceled orders in the wholesale channel carrying too much inventory, 2) consumermacroeconomic impact could negatively weight more heavily on HBI's apparel categories than we currently anticipate, 3) loss of business from privatelabel partners, 4) cost inflation and inability to pass on price increases, and 5) SKU rationalization leads to a loss of sales and margin deleverage.Kontoor Brands, Inc. (KTB / KTB)Valuation Methodology:Our price target of $86 is based on an NTM P/E multiple of 15x our CY26 EPS of $5.74.Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Valuation and Price Target:Risks to the downside on our Overweight ratinginclude: 1)tariffson Mexican imports into the U.S. and an inability to mitigate impacts; 2) the potential for pricing pressure within U.S. denim as lowercosts are recognized and the largest competitor takes targeted action on price reductions to recapture lost share; and 3) acquisition of Helly Hansenand leverage, especially if macro conditions deteriorate ortariffsimpact the business.Source: Barclays Research19 May 2025 3 Leaving Things Better Than You Found ThemWe hosted investors with HBI's management team in Winston-Salem, NC, including StephenBratspies, Chief ExecutiveOfficer;Scott Lewis, Chief FinancialOfficer;Michael Faircloth, GroupPresident, Global Operations; and T.C. Robillard, VP, Investor Relations.Outpacing market growth in core innerwear while leveraging the P&L.The category is alow-growth business, but management is confident in its ability to grow above the market.Product innovation and new categories that fit into the capabilities (such as scrubs) shouldfurther add growth beyond the market. While the Chinatariffrate has come down from theworst-case scenario, the company sees opportunities to take competitive share, particularlyfrom smaller branded competitors and private label which are more reliant on China sourcedproduct and may be cost disadvantaged. Retailers looking for stability and availability mayincreasingly turn to branded partners such as HBI that are advantaged withdifferentiatedsupply chains and/or costs.Reduced complexity within the core business plus the exit of Champion to driveoperational improvements and sustained margins.The business historically had a largepercent of products sitting in the tail, and cuttingoffthe unproductive SKUs has significantlyimproved operations (the business today carries about half the amount of SKUs from its peak).Clarity of product allows the company to lean into winners and understand what is or is notworking in the market. Additionally, the cost savings that came out of the business were"reducing fat, not muscle". The exit of Champion removes significant complexity from theoverall operations; in our view and simply put, Champion operated at adifferentspeedcompared to Hanes, with significantly more fashion risk at Champion and a higher need forinvestment to drive growth. The department stores haddifferentordering patterns and thedesign process wasdifferent.By 3Q25, the company should be out of the stranded costs of thebrand, with Japan exiting before the end of the year, which in our view should support marginthrough the year.Reinvestment into the brand and capabilities, improved marketing, and better forecastingand analytics with retailers all driving the business.Focusing on the core innerwear marketshould create more stability while allowing for greaterefficiency.The company feels moreconfident in its ability to drive the top line with investments in the business, includingredirecting marketing and demand creation while balancing lower and higher funnel, withstronger conversion on Amazon/Walmart and higher retail media spend. While some questionthe sustainability of the margin levels today, the company notes that the investments behindthe brands are higher than they have been and they are providing more value for retailcustomers today vs. pre-2020 (brand investments were ~1.5% of sales, vs. 5% today). Further,improvements in forecasting and analytics have helped the company maintain in-s