关注新型号，尤其是D19

Maintain BUY.We view Leapmotor’s 4Q25 earnings as largely in line andmanagement guidance upbeat.We believe the upcoming two D-series modelscould be key to its margins and valuation, although A-series may contributemore sales volume.We maintain our FY26E sales volume forecast of 0.9mn Target Price(Previous TPUp/DownsideCurrent Price China Auto 4Q25 earnings largely in line.Leapmotor’s 4Q25 revenue rose 56% YoYto RMB21bn, 2% lower than our prior forecast.GPM in 4Q25 widened tothe historical high level of 15.1%, in line with our projection. Vehicle GPM ofabout 12% was slightly lower than our forecast. Selling expenses in 4Q25were higher than our estimates whereas G&A and R&D expenses werelower than expected, which led to an in-line R&D and SG&A combined ratio. Wenjing DOU, CFA(852) 6939 4751douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk Ji SHI, CFA(852) 3761 8728shiji@cmbi.com.hk Austin Liang(852) 3900 0856austinliang@cmbi.com.hk D-series couldbe key to FY26E margins and valuation.We maintain ourFY26E sales volume forecast of 0.9mn units, with theD19SUV andD99MPV combined contributing 0.1mn units.We are of the view that our salesvolume assumption for the D-series is crucial to our forecast ofvehicle GPMlift (FY25: 12.2%, FY26E: 12.7%) and 2% YoY growth in vehicle averageselling price in FY26E, despite industry headwinds with rising componentprices. D-series could also be crucial to Leapmotor’s valuation, in our view, Incomefrom other automakerscould behigherthanexpectation ofsome investors.We expect Leapmotor’srevenue from R&D support, CO2 credits and sales of components to be RMB3.5bn with a blended GPM of70%, which is another reason for FY26E GPM lift and a significant portionof net profitin FY26E. We believe such income could even provide a positivesurprise in FY26-27E. We also expect the joint venture with Stellantis (STLA Valuation/Key risks.We revise up our FY26E/27Enet profit forecastsby20%/2%to RMB3.6bn/4.6bn, respectively. We maintain our BUY rating butcut target price fromHK$73.00to HK$60.00, based on 21x our FY26E P/E.We change our valuation method from P/S to P/Egiven itspositive net profitoutlookfrom FY26E. We lower our multiples to reflect current marketsentiment. Our target price corresponds to 16x our FY27E P/E. Key risks to Source: FactSet RelatedReport “China Auto-Weak 4Q25 sales maylead to earning miss”-21Jan2026 “Leapmotor (9863 HK)-4Q25 NP to bemoreresilient; D19 key to FY26E”-18 Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsiblefor the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report. Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates(as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve asan officer of any of the Hong CMBIGM Ratings OUTPERFORM:Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsMARKET-PERFORM:Industry expected to perform in-line with therelevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsUNDERPERFORM:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months ImportantDisclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.Thevalue of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on the or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed.This report is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation tobuy or sell any security or any interest insecuritiesor enter into any transaction.NeitherCMBIGMnor any of its affiliates, shareholders, agents, consultants, directors, officers or employees shall beliable for any loss, damage or expense whatsoever, whether direct or consequential, incurred in relying on the information contained in this report.Anyone The information and contents contained in this report are based on the analyses and interpretat