拉丁美洲区域经济展望-2025年9月

Table of Contents Executive Summary It’s time to sow the seeds of growth LAC struggling to move up income ladder In focus 1: Central America and Caribbean have the most to lose (or gain) from Boosting investment is key to moving up Argentina: moving into right direction, but a long and difficult road lies ahead8Brazil: mounting headwinds slow economic growth8 Mexico and Central America: politics hinder investments Mexico shifting to a lower gearCosta Rica: moderating but steady economic growth Caribbean: steady investment to boost resilience Dominican Republic: steady growth and targeted policies increase attractiveness Jamaica: strong policymaking paves way for more productivity-enhancing Atradius Economic Research Executive Summary Growing resilience but still lacklustre growth The economy of Latin America & the Caribbean is slowing this year in the face ofhigher-for-longer interest rates and elevated political uncertainty. Thisslowdown comes relatively smoothly and we expect a significant recovery in Stage set to attract more investment to boost growth potential With greater resilience, Latin America & the Caribbean has a fertile opportunityto attract the investment needed to unlock stronger growth potential to moveup the country-income ladder. Chile and Costa Rica are leading examples. Theseeconomies have strong institutions and a skilled labour force with policies thatsupport investment, knowledge sharing and innovation. The DominicanRepublic, Jamaica and Panama are also investing in these characteristics, making them best positioned to attract productivity boosting FDI. Argentina,which is currently undergoing a painful economic adjustment with tentativelybrighter future opportunities, is a far runner-up.But many obstacles still stand in the way LAC’s short-term growth outlook and current chance to improve the investmentclimate faces an array of risks. The La Niña weather phenomenon, US elections,and elevated political uncertainty in many of the region’s economies are keydownside risks to our outlook. Policymaking across the region is also It’s time to sowthe seeds of LAC struggling to move up Figure 1 LAC growth in global perspective Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has significantlyimproved its resilience in the past decades. As a result, theregion has weathered the recent shocks remarkably well. Itwill also help the region to steer through the currentvolatile and uncertain period. But improved resilience has Annual real GDP growth will fall from 2.2% in 2023 to 1.4%in 2024 followed by a significant recovery to 2.5% in 2025.This remains the slowest growth pace among emergingregions (see figure 1). Higher-for-longer interest rates inthe US are subduing economic growth in most of theregion. It has put downward pressure on the currencies Figure 2 Pace of disinflation slows Risks to the outlook are mainly to the downside. Thefaster-than-usual transition from weather phenomenon El Niño to La Niña this year is such a risk (seeour 2023Regional Outlookfor more detail on this weatherphenomenon). The increased frequency of thisphenomenon goes hand-in-hand with more frequent In this Regional Economic Outlook, we will focus on one ofthe underlying reasons for LAC’s structurally low growthrates: investment. We flag countries in the LAC regionwhich stand out in a positive way, or which are takingmeasures in the right direction to support investments andcontinue building resilience to economic risks. Taking Boosting investment is key In focus 1: Central America and Caribbean havethe most to lose (or gain) from US elections About 45% of Latin America and the Caribbean’smerchandise exports are sent to the US and the USaccounts for about one-third of total FDI inflows.Therefore, LAC is vulnerable to a potential return toprotectionist policies in the US – and their impact on trade,investment and remittance flows – following the electionslater this year. Mexico is the most significant trade and Averaging 20% of GDP since 2000, LAC’s domesticinvestments are consistently below those of otheremerging regions, including Africa (see figure 4). WhereasAfrica saw an upturn in the ratio of domestic investmentsto GDP over the past decade, the ratio remained flat in LAC. Should the Democratic Party retain the White House, thepredictability of trade policy would continue with an eyefor friendshoring. This would be benign for the tradeoutlook and it could also spark more FDI into the region. ATrump presidency on the other hand would be much lesspredictable. The greatest risks for LAC trade andinvestment under a Trump presidency are policies toreduce the trade deficit and bring production back to theUS. A threatened 10% flat import tariff by end-2025 wouldheavily weigh on countries with significant exports to theUS that do not have an FTA. Ecuador is the most Perhaps surprisingly, the LAC region performs remarkablywell in attracting foreign direct investments, in contrast tostructurally low dom