制药行业趋势2025年4月

April 2025 Global overview productivity in the pharmaceutical sector in the coming years,mainly by supporting the preclinical phase and R&D in the The US tariffs and retaliation will indirectly affect growth Pharmaceuticals have been exempted from the massive USimport tariffs announced in early April, but uncertainty remains.While pharmaceuticals are more detached from the businesscycle than other sectors due to their essential nature, the sectorwill nevertheless feel the pinch from global economic slowdown. Potential constraints ahead High government debt and the need to reduce fiscal deficits areaffecting public healthcare spending in advanced economies.In recent years, many patents have expired, putting pressure onprofits as generic alternatives have become more popular at atime when governments are seeking to cut costs. The US, Japan In general, the industry has robust equity, solvency and liquidity.Most pharmaceuticals and biotech businesses are able to enjoygood access to external financing to help sustain high R&D costs. This is meeting some resistance from the industry.Pharmaceutical businesses argue that pricing regulations limittheir revenues and lower their incentives to invest in R&D.They also say that directing their research areas could prevent Emerging markets will gradually gain a larger share of globalpharmaceuticals output and sales, as improvements to healthcaresystems and supply chains increase accessibility and production.Producers of speciality products, medicines for chronic conditions Industry trendsPharmaceuticals Strengths and growth drivers Constraints and downside risks Upcoming patent cliff.The top 15 blockbuster patents will expireover the next decade. Producers of brand-name drugs are likelyto increase their R&D spending as they seek to develop new Structural resilience.Pharma products are essential and areusually less affected by economic downturns than other more Ageing demographics.Older populations in developed marketsand China are driving demand for over-the-counter (OTC) Public health spending.Many governments are trying to containor cut public healthcare costs (including via price controls). Thisprice pressure could impact investments, given the high costs of Emerging markets.Improvements in healthcare systems andgrowing disposable household incomes are driving demand. Environmental concerns.Some pharma businesses could facerising pressure from environmental activists highlighting issues Digital technology.AI and big data analytics are improvingefficiency in drug development, clinical trials and patient care. Banks and investors.The pharma industry can sustain high R&Dcosts through continued access to external financing. AmericasPharmaceuticals outlook USA More competition and drug pricingregulation could impact the industry Lower economic growth due to tariffswill impact pharmaceuticals demand While patented drugs will continue todominate the market, there is growingcompetition as both generics and biosimilarsincrease their share, driven by the lossof patent protections on establisheddrugs. According to the US Food and DrugAdministration (FDA), 20 biosimilars wereapproved in 2024, and 109 biosimilars wereenrolled in the FDA’s Biosimilar ProductDevelopment programme. The autoimmunedisease sector is expected to see the largest Lower US economic growth, pricepressures and decreasing privateconsumption due to the far-reachingimport tariffs will affect drug sales. USpharmaceuticals output is forecast toincrease by 2.4% in 2025 and by 1.2%in 2026, a 2 percentage point (ppt)downward reduction over this period.Pharmaceuticals have been exempted The US government has taken steps toreduce the price of pharmaceuticals forconsumers, which could erode businesses´margins. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)authorises Medicare to engage in pricenegotiations with pharma producers. InJanuary 2025 a selection of 15 additionaldrugs for price negotiations was announced.This brings the total number of drugsselected for IRA negotiations to 25. Demand for pharmaceuticals will bedriven by the ageing population inthe US. Companies making specialityproducts, like medicines for chronicconditions and generic drugs, will findgrowth opportunities here. A surge in Margins for branded pharmaceuticals arerobust, leading to strong cash flow andcredit profiles. Many US companies seemfinancially strong or have ample liquidity Brady McKinneyAtradius Underwriter inBaltimore, Maryland, USA.Pharmaceuticals sector Asia PacificPharmaceuticals outlook India Government schemes anddemographics drive growth Government support drives innovation andbetter access to healthcare We expect Indian pharmaceuticalsoutput to grow by 5.9% in 2025 and by9.6% in 2026. Most businesses havestrong balance sheets and good accessto bank financing. The government hasintroduced a National PharmaceuticalPolicy, aimed at reducing drug costsand decreasing dependency on Chineseactive pharmaceutical ingred