2025年8月机器/工程行业趋势

Tariffs and relateduncertainty causing alarge negative impact August 2025August 2025 Global overview monetary policy easing cycle has slowed in most countries, andChina’s investment-driven growth model may be reaching itslimits. All of these factors combined will dampen global demandfor machinery in 2025 and in 2026. A deteriorated sector growth outlook for 2025/2026 We expect global mechanical engineering output to increase byjust 1.4% in 2025, 0.6 percentage points lower than our forecastin March. The downward trend will continue into 2026, wherewe project a growth slowdown to 0.8%, 1.9 percentage pointslower than previously expected. Among the regions Asia Pacific, will perform more stronglythan the West. Mechanical engineering output in both theAmericas and Europe is expected to contract this year, whileAsia Pacific will record a growth rate of about 3%. Amongsubsectors, agricultural machinery, along with machineryrelated to construction and mining, are expected to record largecontractions this year (see chart overleaf). The main reasons for this downgrade are the direct and indirectimpacts of US tariffs. Machinery is highly reliant on cross-bordersupply chains, and therefore very sensitive to changes in globaltrade policies. Confidence and security over strategic planningdecisions is important for an industry that often requiresfinancing for significant capital outlay, often over many years. In the mid- and long-term, the shift towards electric vehicleswill lead to changes in machinery supply to the automotivesector, with more emphasis on batteries and relatedelectrical equipment. Demand for machinery to manufactureconventional powertrains will weaken. Across all regions, weexpect sector growth to decelerate in the long-term. This mainlyaffects Asia Pacific, where China’s pivot to a more services-oriented economy will reduce demand for capital goods. Despite some trade agreements between the US and key exportmarkets, economic and business uncertainty remain highas the threat of new tariffs remains present. In this businessenvironment companies in the manufacturing and constructionsectors are reluctant to invest in capital goods. In addition, the Mechanical engineering output Strengths and growth drivers Constraints and downside risks Economic cycle.Many machinery segments depend on demandfrom cyclical sectors such as construction and automotive. High entry barriers.Established players are able to takeadvantage of the need for major investment in technology todeliver new machines capable of supporting a wider variety ofproduct mixes for their customers. Capital-intensity.Machinery businesses often face largeinvestments and R&D expenditures in order to provide tailor-made products in a market where the preferences of customersare constantly changing. Automation.Many industries are increasingly using processautomation and industrial robots, which should stimulatedemand for related machinery equipment. Commodity price volatility.The sector is highly susceptible tothe price developments and availability of input materials likealuminium, copper and steel. Technological advances.3D printing, AI, IIoT (Industrial Internetof Things) and big data analytics are increasingly used inmanufacturing. Businesses are learning how to take advantageof the massive amounts of data their machines generate. All thisshould result in higher productivity, lower operating costs andhigher margins. AmericasMachines/Engineering outlook USA machinery and equipment purchases.The extension of tax cuts and increase ingovernment spending (defence and non-defence) should lead to a demand recoveryduring H2 of 2026 for US machineryacross all subsectors, with a particularboost for general-purpose machinery. Output contraction due to tariff impact At the beginning of this year, the outlookfor the US mechanical engineering industrywas promising, with output forecast toincrease by 5.4% in 2025. However, due tothe impact of tariffs and weaker economicgrowth we have revised our forecast.We are now expecting a 0.9% contraction,followed by a 3.9% decrease in 2026. In the mid- to long-term, demand forautomation, digitalisation, and sustainableproduction solutions in manufacturingshould support machinery demand.New technologies integrated in themanufacturing process and generativeAI will increase productivity in themechanical engineering industry. The credit risk in the sector is poor /business performance in the sector is weakcompared to its long-term trend. Demand for US machinery has beenseriously impacted by the tariffpolicy currently weighing on the USmanufacturing sector. Against thebackdrop of considerable uncertainty,manufacturing and constructionbusinesses are reticent to commit toorders and investments in capital goods.Private investment in equipment lowedin Q2 of 2025, down from 5.5% growthin Q1 to just 1.2%. Machinery ordershave decreased and are not expected torecover in the near term. At the same timeretaliator