行业趋势机器工程2025年1月

Industry trends – Machines / Engineering A global rebound is underway,but Europe still lags behind Global overview year (see chart overleaf). Demand for engineering and metal goodsis heavily dependent on construction and transport equipment.Both these sectors are highly cyclical and sensitive to financing Most machinery segments to show solid growth rates in 2025 We expect global mechanical engineering output to rebound by3.6% in 2025 after a 0.9% contraction last year. Region-wise therecovery is fuelled by the Americas (mainly US) and Asia Pacific.As the EU accounts for about 20% of global sector output, a The shift towards electric vehicles will lead to changes in machinerysupply to the automotive sector, with more emphasis on batteriesand related electrical equipment. Demand for machinery tomanufacture conventional powertrains will weaken. Across all Apart from the agricultural machinery segment, global production Industry trendsMachines/Engineering Constraints and downside risks Strengths and growth drivers Economic cycle.Many machinery segments depend on demandfrom cyclical sectors such as construction and automotive. High entry barriers.Established players are able to takeadvantage of the need for major investment in technology to Capital-intensity. Machinery businesses often face largeinvestments and R&D expenditures in order to provide tailor- Automation. Many industries are increasingly using processautomation and industrial robots, which should stimulate Commoditypricevolatility. The sector is highly susceptible tothe price developments and availability of input materials like Technologicaladvances. 3D printing, AI, IIoT (Industrial Internetof Things) and big data analytics are increasingly used inmanufacturing. Businesses are learning how to take advantage AmericasMachines/Engineering outlook Canada USA A sluggish recovery in 2025, but growthwill pick up next year Robust growth expected in 2025 and 2026 WAfter contractions in 2023 and in 2024,we expect US mechanical engineeringoutput to rebound by 5.4% in 2025, withsolid growth across all subsectors. TheUS economy is forecast to grow 2.6%this year. This and monetary easing bythe Fed support capital expenditure by After a 6.4% contraction last yearwe expect mechanical engineeringproduction to rebound by 2.3% in 2025.The impact of rate hikes and inflation willcontinue to weigh on Canadian business The credit risk in the sector is poor /business performance in the sector is weakcompared to its long-term trend. In 2026 machinery production growthis forecast to accelerate to 4.8% as theeffects of a looser monetary policy willgain momentum and demand fromkey buyer industries picks up. In theshort-term the US fiscal stimulus should In 2026 we expect machinery productiongrowth to remain robust (up 4.9%) andinvestment in machinery to increase by 7%.Growth drivers should be the extensionof tax cuts and government spending bythe new administration. We expect these Republicans will likely restore the 100%bonus depreciation scheme, allowingcompanies to deduct the full cost ofmachinery purchases in the first year.The extension of tax cuts and increase ingovernment spending (defence and non-defence) will boost economic growth in In the mid to long-term, demand forautomation, digitalisation, and sustainableproduction solutions in manufacturingshould support machinery demand. Asia PacificMachines/Engineering outlook China Japan A slow private investment recoveryand a looming trade war A rebound after a deep contraction seenin 2024 After a 6.8% contraction in Japanesemechanical engineering productionlast year, we expect a 3.7% reboundin 2025 and a 4.7% increase in 2026.Rising Japanese exports of special-purpose machinery for semiconductormanufacturing will support sectorgrowth in the coming months. Machinery In response to the weakening economy,the central government has recentlystepped up its support for economicgrowth through aggressive monetaryeasing, which will be followed byfiscal expansion to support domesticdemand. However, this will take timeto feed through. While private business That said, mechanical engineering issupported by government investmentin strategic sectors such as high-tech,automation, and climate/energy, mainlybenefitting the electrical machinery However, Japanese GDP growth willremain modest at 1.2% in 2025 and 0.7%in 2026. Machinery investments are stillimpacted by high capital goods pricesand lower global investment activity.Additional interest rate hikes by the Bank A major trade dispute with the US remainsa major downside risk. We assume thatthe incoming Trump administrationwill gradually implement a 25% tariffon Chinese machinery, electronics, andchemicals imports starting in 2026. Inresponse, China is expected to impose a The credit risk in the sector is relatively high/ business performance in the sector isbelow its long-term trend. The credit risk in the sector is poor /business performance in