破产展望-2025年10月

Global insolvencies are projected to increase by 5% in 2025 before declining by 3% in 2026, markingan upward revision from the April 2025Outlook. Our insolvency forecast has deteriorated due to the persistence of adverse conditions that triggered asurge in insolvencies in 2024, as well as new sources of distress in the global economy—particularlyrising tariffs and heighteneduncertainty. Looking at 2026, there are also silver linings.Inflation appears to have stabilized at lower levels, andcentral banks around the world have begun to cut interest rates. These developments are expected togradually improve financing conditions for companies in the near term. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect that companies will adapt tothe new economic environment.We also anticipate that, exceptfor the United States, the impact of tariffs on inflation will belimited. Financing conditions are expected to improve in theUnited States as the Federal Reserve is likely to implementseveral moreinterestrate cuts in 2025 and 2026. In theeurozone, financing conditions areprojectedto remain broadlystable as no additional rate cuts are expectedfor the remainderof 2025 and in 2026. Global insolvencies are forecast to rise by 5% in 2025, followedby a 3% year-on-year decline in 2026. In 2025, we anticipate an increase in insolvencies across 18 ofthe 29 markets covered in this report.This follows a yearalready marked by a significant surge in insolvencies, with a 19%year-on-year increase across all markets in 2024. That rise wasdriven by particularly challenging economic conditions,including elevated input costs, high interest rates, and thewithdrawal of pandemic-era government support measures.Data from the first three quarters of 2025 indicate thatinsolvency levels are exceeding our April Outlook projections,suggesting that these adverse conditions are proving morepersistent than previously expected. Furthermore, the globaleconomy is beginning to show additional signs of strain, withmuch higher tariffs andunprecedentedpolicy uncertaintycontributing to weaker-than-anticipated economic growth. The major central banks have responded to the decrease ininflation and embarked on a path of loosening their monetarypolicies. TheEuropean Central Bank (ECB)has implemented aseries of rate cuts since mid-2024.We expect that the ECB willwait to see clear signs offurther decline ofinflation beforeimplementing additional rate cuts.In our baseline scenario, wedon’t expect further rate cuts in the eurozone in 2025 and2026.The Federal Reserve (Fed)implementeda 25 bps rate cutin September 2025, following a nine-month period of stablepolicy rates.While recentUSinflation data is showingsome bitefrom the tariffs, the jobs data is weaker than expected. Giventhe Fed’sdual mandateof promoting high employmentalongside price stability,it attaches more weight to labourmarket data than the ECB.We expect one more 25 bps rate cutin 2025 andseveral more in 2026. Tradetariffsanduncertaintycontinue todragon growth Global growth is projected at 2.7% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026.This brings a downward revision for 2026 of 0.3 percentagepoints compared to our previous April Insolvency Outlook.Theglobal economythis year proved resilientin the face of higherpolicy uncertaintyand trade tariffs.This is largely a result ofsignificant front-loading of trade and activity by firms andhouseholdsin anticipation of higher tariffs.On top of higherinventories, firms have so far been accepting lower profitsinstead of passing through higher costs to consumers.In 2026,we expect that the negative impact of rising tariffs will be feltmore clearly, particularly in the United States. In the short-term,companies may be impacted by a morerestrictive access to credit due to the ongoing economicuncertainty.Overall, credit standards forloans to companiesinthe eurozoneremained broadly unchanged in Q2 of 2025.Perceived risks related to the economic outlook continued tocontribute to a tightening of credit standards. Incontrast,competitive pressures among banks exerted an easing effect.Inthe US,banks reported tighter lendingstandardsfor commercialand industrial loans to firms of all sizes.At the same time, thelagged positive effects of monetary easing that already occurredin 2024will provide some breathing space for companies.Overall, we expect companies to benefit from more favourablefinancing conditions inthe rest of2025, though importantdownside risks remain due to the policy uncertainty. The US’s effective tariff rate on all imports is now above 18%,the highest level sincethe Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930andup from less than 2% in 2024.The tariffs deferred since earlyApril havebeenimposedinearly August.The EU, Japan and theUK managedto secure a deal to avoid higher tariffs (15%, 15%and 10% respectively), whileIndia (50%), Brazil (50%), orCanada (35% on non-USMCA compliant goods) did not.Negotiations with Mexico remain underway and the trade trucewith 30% tariffs on China has been extended anothe