小企业检查站：利润增长，就业放缓

Small Business Checkpoint: Profits growing, jobs slowing 16 October 2025 Key takeaways •Our measure of profitability for small businesses, the inflow-to-outflow ratio, held at 1.01 in September. However, moderatingdeposit growth per small business client could be a sign of weaker revenue growth for small firms as payment growth outpaces,according to Bank of America small business account data. •Meanwhile, Bank of America's small business alternative hiring indicator dropped 7% in September from the 2024 average, withan even sharper drop of 12.9% quarter-over-quarter for services firms. Furthermore, business applications with planned wages -often a signal of real job creation - have dropped below pre-pandemic norms, pointing to labor market softness. •Credit card balances per small business client rose by 3% in September vs the 2024 average, faster than the utilization rate,suggesting some firms are carrying debt forward. Even so, tightening of lending standards from banks has eased, with fewerbanks reporting stricter lending to small firms than large ones, indicating that credit access remains relatively resilient. Small Business Checkpointis a regular publication from Bank of America Institute. It aims to provide a real-time assessment of small businessspending activities and financial well-being, leveraging the depth and breadth of Bank of America’s proprietary data. Such data is not intended to bereflective or indicative of, and should not be relied upon as, the results of operations, financial condition or performance of Bank of America. Small business profits still upDespite small business uncertainty reaching the fourth-highest reading in over 51 years,1in September, small business profits were still positive according to Bank of America small business account data, with the inflow-to-outflow ratio at 1.01 (Exhibit 1).Though this is down from both the March peak and August, it signals some cushion for small firms, with profitability growth up0.1% year-over-year (YoY) on a three-month moving average (3-mma). Exhibit1:Small business profitability remains positive, although payments growth now outpaces deposits growth per small business clientInflow-to-outflow ratio for small businesses, based on Bank of America internal data (monthly, ratio less than 1 means inflow less than outflow, 3-mma,left-hand side (lhs)) and deposits per small business client (monthly, 3-mma, YoY%), right-hand side (rhs)) and payments per small business client(monthly, 3-mma, YoY%, rhs) But what’s driving the underlying trend for positive profits–fewer costs or higher revenue? Bank of America deposit growth persmall business client suggests the answer is the latter. However, revenue has trended downwards since June, though remainspositive, which might suggest weaker revenue growth for small firms going forward. This is further supported by the September National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) report, which found that whilemost owners evaluate their own business as currently healthy, they are having to manage rising inflationary pressures, slowersales expectations, and ongoing labor market challenges.2 Small business labor market is slowingNotably, there are further signs of a slowdown in the small business labor market. Our proprietary alternative hiring indicator based on Bank of America small business (SB) payments data (see Methodology below) was down 7% in September (Exhibit 2).This is consistent with the narrative of hiring deceleration presented in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)August reading. For small services firms, hiring was down 12.9% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), reversing the gains from the previous quarter(Exhibit 3), which may have been reflective of some seasonal summer hiring. Additionally, wholesale and retail trade–bothsectors more exposed to tariffs–have continued to pull back on hiring, though there was slight improvement from Q2. Exhibit2:Small business payments to hiring firms fell 7% fromthe 2024 average in SeptemberSB payments to hiring firms (monthly, 3-mma, indexed, 2024 average Exhibit3:Both services as well as wholesale and retail tradesmall firms pulled back on hiring in Q3 2025Small business payments to hiring firms by industry (QoQ%, = 100) and JOLTS (monthly, 3-mma, indexed, 2024 average = 100) quarterly) More businesses, but not necessarily more jobsDo more businesses translate into more jobs? Not necessarily. The number of business applications has picked up from the start of the year and was at the highest level in over two years in August (Exhibit 4). However, the number of business applicationswith planned wages (i.e. the most promising subset of business formation that may turn into an established business) has fallenbelow the 2015-2019 average and has trended down this year. Exhibit4:The number ofapplicationswith planned wages has fallen significantly this year despite overall business applications picking upNumber of business applications