宏观综述：绕道

Detour We are likely to see UStariffsenforced usingdifferentlegalauthorities but the timing of refunds remains a question. Dataand geopolitical risks remain the focus. Jennifer Cardilli*+1 212 526 8351jennifer.cardilli@barclays.comBCI, US The Macro Wrapis your weekly, need-to-know guide to our key macro views, implications formarkets and trending research. Jill Nentwig*+ 1 212 526 5129jillian.nentwig@barclays.comBCI, US Join ourIEEPATariffsUpdatecall today at 8AM NYT to discuss the Supreme Court decision,Trump's reaction, and what it means for US rates, FX, and equities. Sharon Mutiti*+44 (0)20 7773 1208sharon.mutiti@barclays.comBarclays, UK Join ourThursday Macro: AI gets physicalcall on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 7:45AM NYT. A chaotic end to the week as the US Supreme Court struck down IEEPAtariffs. PatrickCoffey*+44 (0)20 3555 5955patrick.coffey@barclays.comBarclays, UK Big picture, the macro backdrop remains largely supportive. The Fed’s minutes indicatebroad support for holding rates in the near term. US industrial production started the yearstrongly, with manufacturing and utilities leading the way. Core PCE inflation rose 0.36%m/m, just below expectations. Alternative indicators point to a strong re-acceleration incontrol group retail sales in January alongside an uptick in JOLTSafterrecent declines. TheUS trade deficit widened to $70.3bn, for two consecutive months . European PMIs (51.9) beat expectations and showed sectoral rotation, with manufacturingoutput expanding faster than services activity. However, our European industrials teamremains fairly bearish on a European industrial recovery. UK CPI inflation decelerated 40bps to 3.0%, within tolerance for a March rate cut. We tweakedour headline CPI forecast by -5bps and core by +6bps on average over the next 12 months. UKPMIs rose 20bps MoM and beat expectations, with a pickup in global demand for exportshelping toliftmanufacturing activity. Following the recent Japanese election, an emphasis on fiscal sustainability/marketconfidence is expected. The FX special account surplus has emerged as a potential fundingsource for VAT cuts. Amid renewed JPY weakness, the PM has yet to push back against ratehikes. Markets are being driven by supply-demand factors, such as accounting changes Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. * This individual is a member of the Product Management Group and is not a Research Analyst All research referenced herein has been previously published. You can view the full reports,including analyst certifications and other important disclosures, by clicking the hyperlinks inthis publication or by going to our Research portal on Barclays Live. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 9.Completed: 23-Feb-26, 10:24 GMTReleased: 23-Feb-26, 10:24 GMTRestricted - External around impairments by lifers. Next week's focusshiftsto the 2y auction, the superlong-sectorliquidity-tap auction and BoJ board announcements. At our 43rdannual Barclays Industrial Select Conference, management teams were broadlybullish, guidance remains prudent and AI was viewed as a multi-year demand driver andgenerator ofcost-efficiencies. Barclays Research Highlights Public Policy / US Rates Research / FX Research: Supreme Court strikes down IEEPAtariffs The Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA does not authorizetariffs,prompting President Trump toannounce an interim 10% globaltariffand new Section 301 investigations, temporarily loweringtheeffectiveU.S.tariffrate but potentially setting the stage for highertariffslater. We think thatmarkets may see modest fiscal slippageeffects—steepercurves and tighter long-end spreads inrates, slight front-end inflation pressure relief, and FX support for riskier currencies, with theruling marginally USD-supportive versus majors. US Inflation Strategy & US Economics: The past will be increasingly certain We find compelling reasons to believe that Truflation indices should be taken seriously as anowcasting input for CPI. The rise of alternative data sources such as Truflation could, overtime, reduce nowcasting errors for US CPI, both at the headline level and for certainsubcomponents. AI gets physical: The decade of the robot Advances in brains, brawn and batteries are pushing AI-enabled robotics to an inflection point,setting the investment agenda for the next decade. From humanoids and autonomous vehiclesto industrial automation and drones, the market is scaling toward a trillion-dollar opportunityby 2035. FIGURE 1. Physical AI market size, 2025 and 2035 projections Source: Company