卡塔尔减产进一步加剧供应风险；铝价看涨

risks; +ve to aluminium price Productioncut in Qatar to further increase What’s new?Qatalum,a50/50 JV owned byHorsk Hydro (NHY NO, NR)andQatar Aluminum Manufacturing Company (QAMC QD, NR),announcedthat China Materials Sector it has initiated a controlled shutdown of its aluminium production since3Mar,dueto the suspension of gas supply.The shutdown is expected to becompleted by end of Mar. A full restart could take 6-12 months with no schedule Wayne FUNG, CFA(852) 3900 0826waynefung@cmbi.com.hk Jake Zhang(852) 3900 0849jakezhang@cmbi.com.hk Analysis:Qatalum has a nameplate capacity of aluminium of 648kt with amaximum capacity of690kt.Qatalum was running at full utilisation in 2025and we estimateitaccounted for~0.9% of global output. Qatalum did not Related reports: Implication.We believe the production cut by Qatalum, together with the~620kt of capacity in Iran which isvulnerable to operational risks(link), willfurther tighten the aluminium supply in 2026E.Given the uncertainties inthe Middle East, we will not be surprised to see further productioncut in theregion. To recap, the Middle East accounted for roughly ~9% of the world’s Potential supply disruption in theMiddleEast will support thealuminium price–2 Mar 2026 (link) Aluminium price to be fuelled by tightsupply throughout 2026–4 Feb 2026(link) Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK)-Capacity growth in Saudi Arabia +superb cost advantage on low greenenergy cost in China-4 Feb 2026 (link) What to do with stocks?Amid the volatile market at the moment, webelieve Chinese aluminium makersoffer good resilience as a hedgeagainst the Iran crisis.ReiterateBUYonChina Hongqiao (1378 HK)andChuangxin Industries (2788 HK). China Hongqiao (1378 HK)-Raisingearnings and TP on higher aluminiumprice–4 Feb 2026 (link) CGN Mining (1164 HK)-Newlyproposed policy in Kazakhstan: littleimpact on asset rights but risk tovaluation–9 Dec 2025 (link) China Hongqiao (1378 HK)–Further re-rating is possible–12 Nov 2025 (link) Uranium-Tight uranium supplycontinues to support a multi-yearupcycle; Positive on CGN Mining–2 Oct2025 (link) CGN Mining (1164 HK)-Further upsidedrivenby higher uranium price–2 Oct2025 (link) China Hongqiao (1378 HK)–Lack ofInterim dividends but new buybackscheme to boost confidence–18 Aug2025 (link) Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this researchreport, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report. Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potentialreturn of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12months CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB InternationalCapital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in the This report or any information contained herein, have been prepared by theCMBIGM, solely forthe purpose of supplying information to the clients ofCMBIGMor its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed.This report is not and should not b