极具吸引力的实际利率主导新兴市场外汇走势

Oliver HarveyMacro Strategist It's been a strong start to the year for EM currencies and assets in general, butunderstanding cross-sectional performance can give a clue to future returns. To doso, we regress EM FX returns across some standard macro and financial variables Real rates are in the driving seat of EM FX returns The regression table is summarised below and conclusions are relatively clear.When controlling for other variables, real rates (measured simply as policy ratesminus year-on-year inflation) are the most statistically significant driver of EM FXreturns year to date. The other two variables of note are current account changes Thisconclusion is an interesting one.Carry trades have dominated EMperformance over the last year but, as we noted in our outlook, the carry factordoesn't explain relative Asia FX performance very well. It seems the case, however,that real rates do a better job. In general terms, central banks in CEEMEA and LatinAmerica have preserved larger real rate buffers than Asian central banks in recentmonths and, since the start of the year, every central bank in the former two regions High EM real rates helping to drive both FX and FI returns and explain regionalperformance Other charts are worth highlighting in this respect. One, average EM real rates havemore than reversed their declines versus the US in the post 2021/22 inflation (Figure8), speaking to our point above about EM monetary orthodoxy. In other words, EMreal rates in aggregate are now very attractive versus US ones, especially given lowlevels of volatility. Second, while curves in Asian currencies like India or Korea havebeen steepening over recent months, those in some traditionally high-yielding EM Summarising the above, a third driver to add to the weaker dollar and supportivegrowth outlook for EM assets is therefore monetary policy orthodoxy. This seems Finally, we can assess whether the current very attractive real rate backdrop is likelyto change using our forecasts for both central bank policy and inflation. Projectedreal rates for mid-2026 are found in Figure 11. For most of CEEMEA and Lat Am, realrates are projected to remain very high and in some cases rise significantly(Colombia). Only Poland and Hungary are expected to see real rates fall materially Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies,and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research, please visit our globaldisclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from withinthis report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/ Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively 'DeutscheBank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to bereliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to third-party websites in thisreport are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content nor is responsible for the If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in this report, oris included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Bank may act asprincipal for its own account or as agent for another person. Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for its own accountor with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others within Deutsche Bank,including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with those taken in this researchreport. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of communication may differ fromrecommendations contained in others, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, perspectives or Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current