本周新兴市场亮点：实际利率会更低吗？

GEMsin theweek Lower for real? ◆EM local currency debt hasoutperformed all major assetclasses y-t-d, as falling yields reflect growing concerns overslowing economic activity Ali CakirogluEmerging Markets StrategistHSBC Bank plcalicakiroglu@hsbc.com ◆Our analyses suggest that thebond rally is driven by a dualforce: a downward shift inneutral yields at the short end and Ramya R SAnalystHSBC Bank Middle East Ltd, DIFCramya.r.s@hsbc.com+ 971 4 509 3351 Edward Parker, CFAEmerging Markets StrategistHSBC Bank plcedward.parker@hsbc.com ◆Rate cuts by central banks could furthersupportthe outlookfor EMLCD;EM FXperformancewouldalso be critical Rohit Mehboobani*AssociateBangalore The silent shift in EM yields Aprilsawa surge involatility and a sharp sell-offacross risk assets, includingemerging markets (EM), as‘Liberation Day’ announcementsof baseline and * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Whilemost assetseventually recouped their losses–and financial marketvolatility easedsomewhatfollowing the announcement of a 90-day extension intariffs–it was theEM local currency debt(LCD)that stood out as a clean winner(GEMs in the week: What’s cheap? The multi-asset angle, 14 March 2025). Not only To be sure,EM FX has been theprimarydriverof this performance,withastrongcontributiony-t-d. That said,the leg lower in bond yields has also played ameaningful role,withboth theshort and long endsof the EM yield curve Usingamethodologysimilarto Adrian, Crump and Moench1, our estimates suggestthatthe declinein yields reflects two distinct but reinforcingforces. At thefrontendof the curve,themoveappearsto have been led by adownward shift in theestimated neutral yield, which hasfallenby75bp, from 8.00% at the end of 2024 to At the long end, the story is one ofterm premium compression. While harder tomeasure precisely, our estimates suggest thatterm premia havenarrowed byaround 40bpsince the end of 2024, likely reflecting increased demand for EM duration Overall,the prospect for lower policy rates createsadditionalroom for yield compression,in our view.Our fixed income strategy team also argues for some tailwinds forEMbond markets, particularlyinAsia (Asia-Pacific Rates:Tailwinds, 24 April 2025) HSBC Global Research Podcasts Listen to our insights Find out more 1“Pricing the term structure with linear regressions”, Journal of Financial Economics, Volume 110, Issue1,2013,Pages 110-138 Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Equity EM equities had a positive week.Earlier in the week, rising optimismonthe progress of tradenegotiations led EM equitiesto rally, however, this was short-lived.TheUS Q1 GDP data releasepointed to its firstcontraction since 2022, and this led to a shift ininvestors’ focus back togrowthrisks, trimming the weekly gains. Still, EM equities are up 1.5% on a w-o-w basis (led by Asian Fixed Income It was a mixed week for EM fixed income. EM LCD fared better than dollar bonds through a volatileweek, returning 0.6% w-o-w, while EXD posted a minor weekly decline of 0.1%.In local debt,EMAsiadid particularly well, rising0.9% w-o-w. In external debt,IG gains (0.3%) were more than offsetby HY losses (-0.5%)this week. For an overview of the outstanding trades in the fixed income space, FX There was modest appreciation in EM FX, led by EM Asian currencies, followingtheimprovedsentiment on the likelihood of a tariff deal that would help ease the tariffs impact. TWD, followedby IDR and MYR led the weekly Asian gains. INR also appreciated this week, reaching its highest level v/s the USD so far in 2025 after increased foreign interest in local equities and a EM Performance: Equity EM Performance: Local currency debt EM Performance: External debt EM Performance: FX EM Relative Performance Source: HSBC, Bloomberg. Total return* in USD. Rolling 13-week changes. Source: HSBC, Bloomberg. Total return* in USD. Rolling 13-week changes. Source: HSBC, Bloomberg. Total return* in USD. Rolling 13-week changes. Source: HSBC, Bloomberg. Total return* in USD. Rolling 13-week changes. *Total returns in equities measure price appreciation and dividends, in fixed income price appreciation and coupon accrual, and any FXtranslation effects; transaction costs areexcluded. EM Performance: YTDtotalreturn breakdown Correlations Source: Bloomberg, HSBC. Average since 2009. Source: Bloomberg, HSBC. Average since2009. Source: Bloomberg, HSBC. Average since 2009. Source: Bloomberg, HSBC. Average since 2009. Global Indicators EM Activity Source: HSBC, Bloomberg Source: HSBC calculations, Bloomberg Source: HSBC calculations, Bloomberg EM Inflation EM Monetary Policy Global Monetary Policy and Finan