2025年第四季度国防科技风险投资趋势

EMERGING TECH RESEARCH Defense TechVC Trends VC activity across the defense tech ecosystem REPORT PREVIEWThe full report is availablethrough the PitchBook Platform. Contents Quarterly analysis4 Institutional Research Group Key takeaways4 Ali Javaheri Senior Research Analyst, Emerging Spacesali.javaheri@pitchbook.com VC activity4 pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Conclusions Published on February 9, 2026 Defense tech VC deal summary Quarterly analysis Key takeaways 27 exits, anchored by NVIDIA’s approximately $20 billion Groq licensing/asset deal, reinforcing thatcompute-adjacent dual-use infrastructure continues to power the largest exits and validate late- Defense tech VC is still expanding, but it is now an industrialization cycle, not a “Pentagon innovation”cycle. 2025 closed at $49.9 billion across 966 deals, with Q4 holding steady at $11.9 billion despite softer VC activity As of December 31, 2025, defense tech VC closed the year in clear expansion mode, with $49.9 billiondeployed across 966 deals globally. Deal value rose sharply from $27.3 billion in 2024, while deal count Capital is concentrating on autonomy, sensing/security, and compute-adjacent infrastructure. On aTTM basis, autonomous systems ($12.1 billion) and sensing, connectivity & security ($8.4 billion) led Quarterly pacing confirms that 2025 was fundamentally a capital deployment story. Deal flow remainedelevated but moderated into year-end, with 225 deals in Q4 (down from 236 in Q3), while dollars remainedresilient at $11.9 billion (up from $11.3 billion in Q3). The defining moment of the year occurred in Q2,when deal value surged to $18.3 billion across 253 deals, reflecting a step-change in late-stage and 2025 was decisively bigger, later, and execution-heavy. Venture growth ($25.2 billion) and late-stage VC($18.4 billion) captured roughly 87% of total deployed capital, while valuations remained constructive inthe early stage ($106.2 million median pre-money, up from $71.5 million), and venture growth deal sizes The stage mix reinforces this “bigger, later” structure. Across 2025, venture growth captured $25.2 billionand late-stage VC captured $18.4 billion, meaning roughly 87% of deployed capital flowed into later-stage and growth financings. Early-stage funding reached $5.2 billion, while seed totaled $1.1 billion.This distribution held into Q4, when venture growth contributed $6.2 billion and late-stage VC added AI’s center of gravity shifted toward inference and deployment infrastructure. Lambda’s $1.5 billionround (1.85× step-up) and the broader autonomy tape (Forterra, HavocAI, Neros, Vatn Systems) reflect Q4 exit liquidity snapped back at the top end, driven by dual-use more than defense-native outcomes.2025 exit value rose to $54.8 billion (vs $18.2 billion in 2024), with Q4 delivering $31.8 billion across QUARTERLY ANALYSIS Valuations continued to support the view that the sector remains in an expansionary regime, particularlyin early-stage funding. The early VC median pre-money valuation rose to $106.2 million in 2025 from$71.5 million in 2024, while the later-stage median increased to $121 million from $95 million. Seedvaluations remained stable at $18 million, but median seed deal size increased to $4.5 million from$3.7 million, suggesting that formation activity remains healthy even as capital concentrates at the top Q4’s largest rounds also reinforced the direction of travel for AI in defense: away from model-buildingas a standalone category and toward inference, deployment infrastructure, and operational execution.Lambda’s $1.5 billion late-stage round (1.85× step-up) was the cleanest “picks-and-shovels” proofpoint in the quarter, reflecting sustained willingness to capitalize on compute supply as a constraint. Exit activity strengthened materially into year-end and is now catching up to the private-market buildup.Exit value reached $54.9 billion in 2025 versus $18.2 billion in 2024, with Q4 alone delivering $31.8 billionacross 27 exits. The quarter’s step-change was anchored by NVIDIA’s approximately $20 billion, largelycash, nonexclusive licensing agreement for Groq’s AI inference technology and IP, a deal that effectivelyacquired key assets and talent while being structured as licensing rather than a traditional acquisition.Groq’s Founder and CEO Jonathan Ross and President Sunny Madra are joining NVIDIA, while Groq is Segment concentration remained consistent with an autonomy-and software-heavy market structure.On a trailing TTM basis, autonomous systems ($12.1 billion) and sensing, connectivity & security ($8.4billion) led deployed capital, followed by renewable energy generation & storage ($6.3 billion) andadvanced computing & software ($6.2 billion). Deal count concentration mirrored this pattern, led byautonomous systems (178 deals), sensing, connectivity & security (158), and advanced computing &software (136). These dynamics were most visible within autonomy, where capital inc