2025年第四季度人工智能风险投资趋势

EMERGING TECH RESEARCH AI VC Trends VC activity across the AI ecosystem REPORT PREVIEWThe full report is availablethrough the PitchBook Platform. Contents Institutional Research Group Dimitri ZabelinSenior Research Analyst, AI and Cybersecuritydimitri.zabelin@pitchbook.com pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Published on February 12, 2026 Quarterly analysis In Q4, capital invested rose to $54 billion, far exceeding the long-run quarterly average of $31.6billion and more than double the median of $25 billion measured over the Q1 2018 to Q4 2025 period. Key takeaways •AI VC investment remained elevated in Q4 2025. Capital deployed far exceeded long-run quarterlyaverages, even as deal counts stayed below historical norms. 2026 may mark the early stages of a broader rebalancing in both capital allocation and transactionactivity across the four AI segments. On a trailing 12-month (TTM) basis, horizontal platformscontinues to lead in deal value, but the gap relative to vertical applications is beginning to narrow. •Vertical applications led all AI segments in both deal value and transaction count. Horizontal •Large financings and record-high AI M&A activity anchored the market. Project Prometheus raised$6.2 billion, while Databricks closed a $4 billion Series L. VC activity This pattern could signal that horizontal platforms are entering a more mature phase of development.As core capabilities deepen and performance becomes more reliable, they enable a broader range of VC deal counts In 2025, AI VC deal value reached a record high of $243.9 billion across 7,176 transactions, even as dealcounts remained well below the prior peak of 10,075 in 2021. Venture growth accounted for the largestshare of capital deployed during the year and, consistent with prior quarters, represented the dominant Q4 provided a clear illustration of this shift. Vertical applications led the quarter in both deal value andactivity, attracting $22.1 billion across 1,151 transactions. Horizontal platforms followed with $16.2billion invested across 408 deals, representing a sharp pullback from Q3 levels of $31.3 billion and QUARTERLY ANALYSIS AI semiconductors posted its second-highest quarterly deal value on record, reaching $4.9 billionacross 74 transactions. The only higher quarter in the series was Q4 2024, when the segment recorded While venture growth continued to account for the smallest share of total transactions, this reflects thestructural nature of the stage, where deal activity is typically limited but capital intensity is high. Whatdifferentiates 2025 is that venture growth was the only segment in the VC lifecycle to see an increase in Exits Exit value in Q4 2025 reached $56.3 billion across 73 transactions, more than double the long-runquarterly average of approximately $23.7 billion and nearly 5x the median of $12 billion, based on data This pattern was further reinforced by rising AI median VC deal sizes at the venture-growth stage,signaling deeper capital commitments even as activity across most other stages contracted. Overallmedian VC deal sizes increased from $4.5 billion in 2024 to a record high of $6 billion in 2025, marking In 2025, AI M&A reached the highest level on record in both aggregate deal value and transactionvolume, totaling $142.5 billion across 808 deals. On a quarterly basis, M&A remained the primary exitroute by transaction count across all segments in Q4 2025. Exit value, however, was more unevenly Notable deals Project Prometheus closed a $6.2 billion early-stage round, the largest disclosed venture financing ofQ4 2025. Backed by Jeff Bezos, who serves as co-CEO alongside Vik Bajaj, the startup is positioning Valuations and deal sizes Venture growth recorded the largest YoY increase in median VC pre-money valuations, rising from$168.2 billion to $333.6 billion by the end of 2025, representing the most pronounced expansion across QUARTERLY ANALYSIS The company is focused on developing so-called world models trained on data generated throughits own large-scale, robot-operated physical facilities. To bridge digital and physical operations, Macro backdrop Fundraising and exit activity are expected to remain sensitive to macroeconomic conditions in 2026.A deterioration in labor market indicators combined with stable or moderating Consumer Price Index Databricks ranked second by funding size after closing a $4 billion Series L round, valuing the companyat a $129.9 billion pre-money. The raise capped a period of rapid scale, with the company reportingan annualized revenue run rate of approximately $4.8 billion, growing more than 55% YoY on strongenterprise demand for its AI and data analytics platform. In January 2026, Databricks supplemented At the same time, sovereign AI initiatives are expected to continue scaling, with governmentsdeploying capital both directly through strategic investments and indirectly via supportive industrial Conclusions Reflection AI secured the