2025年第三季度人工智能风险投资趋势

EMERGING TECH RESEARCH AI VC Trends VC activity across the AI ecosystem REPORT PREVIEWThe full report is available through Contents AI landscape Institutional Research Group Analysis Dimitri ZabelinSenior Research Analyst,AI and Cybersecuritydimitri.zabelin@pitchbook.com DataOscar AllawayData Analystpbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Publishing Report designed byJosie DoanandDrew Sanders Published on November 24, 2025 Quarterly analysis Key takeaways •Horizontal platforms set the tone for Q3 as fundraising increased from $10.3 billion in Q2 tomore than $33.5 billion in Q3, while vertical applications led deal count with 663 deals. •AI semiconductor deal value exceeded its historical quarterly average of $1.9 billion, whileautonomous machines fell below its $2.9 billion average. Venture-growth valuations also •Quarterly figures were shaped by outsized one-time events, most notably OpenAI raising $40billion at a $300 billion valuation and Anthropic raising $13 billion at a $183 billion valuation, VC activity VC deal counts AI VC deal value in Q3 reached $54.8 billion across 1,086 deals, up from $49.3 billion in Q2 butbelow the record $72.4 billion in Q1. Since Q4 2024, venture-growth rounds have accountedfor the majority of deal value, although late-stage VC deals narrowly led in Q3. Deal counts, QUARTERLY ANALYSIS AI semiconductor and autonomous machine deal value reached $3.9 billion and $2.5 billion inQ3, respectively. Semiconductor deal value has exceeded its historical quarterly average of $1.9 Valuations and deal sizes Between 2024 and Q3 2025, venture growth recorded the largest median VC pre-money valuationincrease at 95.7%, outpacing gains across pre-seed/seed, early-stage, and late-stage segmentsover the same period. The 2025 jump ranks as the third-largest annual increase in venture-growthvaluations across the 2014-2025 period, behind the 121.9% surge in 2020 to 2021 and the 116% Horizontal platforms more than tripled its fundraising from $10.3 billion in Q2 to more than $33.5billion in Q3. Capital deployment in the segment has been heavily concentrated over the past year,surging to record levels in Q1 2025. Since 2017, quarterly deal counts have fallen to a record low Median VC pre-money valuation step-ups rose modestly across all stages in Q3 2025, with theoverall multiple increasing from 1.6x in 2024 to 1.8x. All median step-up multiples across pre-seed/seed, early stage, late stage, and venture growth exceeded their 12-year average of 2.4%, 2%, 1.2%, Vertical applications showed the inverse trend of horizontal platforms, recording $14.9 billion indeal value but leading all segments in transaction count with 663 deals. This broader pattern, Notable deals On a trailing 12-month (TTM) basis, this dynamic is even more pronounced. Horizontal platformsgenerated $128.5 billion in deal value across 1,472 deals, while vertical applications recorded The three largest deals in Q3 illustrate the continued concentration of capital in horizontalplatforms. The biggest deal was Anthropic’s Series F round, led by Fidelity Management &Research Company, ICONIQ Capital, and Lightspeed Venture Partners. The $13 billion round QUARTERLY ANALYSIS Acquisitions remained the primary path to liquidity, accounting for 70% of all VC exits, whileIPOs remained the main driver of exit value. The top VC-backed exits in Q3 2025 were all IPOs, company has been reportedly seeking an additional $20 billion through a mix of debt and equityin a deal led by Valor Equity Partners. The third-largest deal was Mistral AI’s Series C round, led by Exits As the capital vortex continues in the US market, its gravitational pull will reinforce its asymmetricadvantage over regional peers and further entrench its leadership in fundraising, exits, and Quarterly VC exit activity reached 166 exits in Q3, the highest since Q1 2022, when it had the samenumber. Quarterly exit value surpassed Q2’s $17.3 billion but fell short of Q1’s $30.7 billion. On a Macro backdrop Semiconductors recorded the highest exit value on record at $25.2 billion across 23 deals.Autonomous machines saw $6.1 billion in exits, nearly half the $11 billion recorded in 2024. We believe fundraising and IPO-related exit activity will continue to strengthen if supportivemacroeconomic conditions persist. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) delivered two 25-basis-point Horizontal platforms generated $15.8 billion in exit value, surpassing the previous two years butremaining well below the 2021 peak of $60.4 billion. We expect horizontal platforms, particularlyfoundation model providers, such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI, to stay private longer, given the The decision reflects a shift in policy focus toward labor market conditions, giving the Fed a pretextto cut rates while maintaining credibility with investors and policymakers. Continued monetary Vertical applications recorded $24.3 billion in VC exit value, and Q4 activity is expected to pushth