2026年全球预测报告

Inigo is a global multi-line specialty insurance andreinsurance company that we started in 2020. We setour business up with two clear aims: to gather data in anorganised and strategic way, and to build the analytical At the heart of our values is a belief that good informationshould be shared. It can help customers manage riskmore efficiently,and more knowledgeably. It is not anexaggeration to say good, clear insights, can help our One of the challenges is the sheer quantity of availabledata; the world is inundated with it, and it is growing at an The skill is to focus on the data that is useful and to displayit ina way that allows people to understand it and digest it, We have a love affair with data, and we love to share it.So do Visual Capitalist. We are proud to partner with VisualCapitaliston the 2026 Global Forecast Series, and hope you WELCOME TO 2026 Predicting the future has never been easy, but it’s rarely felt quite thishard. We’re living through a strange inflection point where artificialintelligence is advancing faster than institutions can adapt, wheregeopolitical fault lines are shifting beneath our feet, and where the This year’s Global Forecast Report is our attempt to find signal inthe noise. Backed by our largest predictions database ever, we’vesynthesized over 2,000 forecasts from leading economists, strategists,and technologists to surface the themes most likely to shape 2026.On the surface, the outlook appears stable: markets expect another yearof gains, inflation is cooling, and a global recession seems unlikely. But Predicting the future is a humbling exercise. History has a way ofsurprising even the most informed observers. But we believe thatthoughtful analysis, grounded in data and diverse perspectives, can helpus prepare for what’s coming, or at least feel a little less blindsided whenit arrives. Whether you’rean investor scanning for risk, a business leader Thank you for joining us on this journey into 2026. TABLE OF CONTENTS 28Markets 41Geopolitics 61Society We analyzed over 2,000 predictions from articles, reports, podcasts, and interviewsto see what experts are predicting for the coming year. Here are the top themes. We analyzed over 2,000 predictions from articles, reports, podcasts, and interviewsto see what experts are predicting for the coming year. Here are the top themes.EconomyMarketsGeopoliticsTechctions from articles, reports, podcasts, and interviews ting for the coming year. Here are the top themes. 2026 I N S E V E N WO R DS Based on analysis of our predictions database, these are the themes that will define the year ahead. 2026 will beAutomated AI agents, humanoid robots,autonomous systems. Machinestaking over thinking and doing Tariffs, Fed policy, geopoliticalflashpoints, AI bubble risk.A "wide range of outcomes." 2026 will beTransitional 2026 will beContested Battles on every front: gray-zoneprovocations, grinding wars, cyberand space domains militarizing.Leaders like OpenAI and Nvidia Globalization fragmenting,institutions tested, old rulesdecaying. And unrest simmering 2026 will beExpensive 2026 will beTrumpian Massive AI capex. Defensespending surging. Grid upgradesto supply power-hungry Not just the man—the mindset.Brute force over diplomacy. Bilateralover multilateral. Transactional over 2026 will beResilient Despite everything, norecession. Global growth holds.Markets stay bullish. The system The triumvirate of fiscalpolicy, monetary policyand deregulation are allworking together in a Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley ECONOMY T H E 5 BIGGE S T R I S K SB I GG E S T R I S K S Fragmentationof the Global The slow breakdown of global tradenorms is actively reshaping supply chains, Due to tariffs, trade mayreroute permanently, leading toinefficiencies, higher costs,and lower global output. Coalitions of thewilling will strike new dealsoutside traditional Geo-economics will continue toplay a key role, with trade, investmentand financial flows increasinglyshaped by geopolitical considerations. A single miscalculation could cascade into Relations between America and Chinawill remain deeply adversarial, with flashpointsover Taiwan, technology and trade. The most severe globalrisk over the next decade isstate-based armed conflict. The risk of a major powerconflict is higher than at anypoint since the Cold War. Global Debt andFiscal Sustainability Years of high rates have turneddebt into a systemic vulnerability. Low-income countries areespecially vulnerable to tighterglobal financial conditions, highdebt levels and limited fiscal space. The ‘policy triumvirate’(fiscal policy, monetary policy andfinancial stability tools) will beincreasingly constrained. A projected jump in publicdebt of around 15 percentagepoints of GDP will significantlyincrease fiscal vulnerability. AI-DrivenLabor Crisisand Instability AI is both the largest upside opportunityand one of the most destabilizing forces. AI-driven technological change c