经济观察：聚焦石油市场：量化全球石油市场的主要风险与机遇

Economic Insights:Oil Markets In Focus Quantifying the key risks andopportunities in global oil markets 20 February 2026 Key Findings Global oil markets enter 2026 in surplus—yet geopolitical shocks dominate the risk outlook. Global GDP % variance from baseline •Global oil supply enters 2026 in a surplus; prices fell by almost20%in 2025as OPEC+ unwound voluntary cuts alongside robustnon-OPEC+ supply. The global oil market enters 2026amid heightened uncertainty,driven primarily by escalatinggeopolitical tensions acrossseveral major producer states. Aseries of recent events, includingunrest in Iran and the capture ofVenezuelan President NicolasMaduro, has introducedsignificant disruption into themarket, increasing volatility inglobal supply chains. •However, oil prices remain volatile, with average prices in January2026 of USD 66 per barrel (bbl), rising to USD 72/bbl on February 20,the highest level in six months due to escalating US-Iran tension. To assess the effects of key developments in the global oil market, wehave modelled two high-impact scenarios using KGEM (Kroll’sgeo-economic model). •A closure of the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 whichdoubles oil pricesand drives down global growth by 2.5%, pushing most of the worldinto recession.•A revival of the Venezuelan oil industry by 2030 leads to longer termbenefits to the global economy asoil prices are moderatedandsupply becomes more diversified. Global Oil Price% variance from baseline This note outlines the potential impacts ofthese events for oil prices and the broaderglobal economy. The analysis shows that instability in the Middle East is the mainshort-term issue for oil markets, with developments in Venezuelamore likely to impact the market in the longer term. 20% percentof global supply passesthrough the Straits of Hormuz. Venezuelaaccounts for18%ofglobal oil reserves. Current State of the Market Brent crude oil prices have risen to their highest level in six months in February, despite surplus supply. •Global oil supply is currently operating in a surplus, with prices having fallen by almost 20% in 2025. This shift is largely due to OPEC+ producersunwinding voluntary production cuts, alongside robust supply from non-OPEC+ producers. •Average oil prices in January 2026 were USD 66/bbl, and are forecast to remain subdued throughout 2026, with a range of industry forecasts indicatingan average of USD 60 per barrel as inventories continue to rise. This level is significantly below the 30-year average of USD 80 per barrel. •However recent geopolitical tensions between US and Iran, coupled with a clampdown in shadow fleets, has led to oil prices rising to USD 71/bbl(February 20, 2026), the highest level since July 31, 2025. Scenario 1:Strait of Hormuz Closes in 2026 A major political crisis leads to Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 choking Middle Eastern oil exports and temporarily cripplingthe global oil trade. Middle Eastern oil supply declines by 65% and average global oil prices rise by up to 96%. Middle Eastern GDPfalls by 37% in 2026. •Rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, pose aserious risk to regional oil production and could threaten the stability ofthe Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil shipping route. •Although the Strait has never been closed, Iran has repeatedlythreatened to do so during periods of conflict, most recently in 2025after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities during the “Twelve-DayWar”. •In recent weeks, the U.S. has rapidly concentrated high-end militarycapability around Iran, including two aircraft carriers, expandedairpower, and layered strike and defense assets. •The Middle East remains central to global energy markets. It includesfive of the world’s top ten oil producers, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UnitedArab Emirates, Iran and Kuwait, and supplies around 31% of global oil,and around 20% of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz annually. •The combination of high volume and geopolitical volatility makes it oneof the world’s most significant economic choke points. •If a major political crisis prompted Iran to close the Strait, regional oiloutput could fall by about 65%. The resulting price shock wouldextend far beyond energy markets, raising transportation andmanufacturing costs and ultimately affecting businesses andconsumers globally. •Under this scenario, KGEM results show that such a significant reduction in oil output in the Middle East would drive global oilprices up by 96%, and lead to a substantial decline in global GDP of up to 2.4% in 2026.•The Middle East would face the largest impacts, with overall GDP expected to fall by up to 36%, temporarily cripplingthe economy.•Once the Strait reopens, modelling suggests that a rapid recovery would follow across most regions. •According to the International Monetary Fund, a 10% increase in oilprices typically leads to a 0.3% to 0.4% rise in global inflation.1 Scenario 2: Venezuela’sOilIndustry i