产业政策与经济增长：来自沙特阿拉伯的证据

Industrial Policy and Economic Growth Evidence from Saudi Arabia Dilan YangMuhammad Khudadad Chattha Fiscal Policy and Growth Global DepartmentMarch 2026 Policy Research Working Paper11329 Abstract This paper empirically assesses Saudi Arabia’s industrialpolicy using data on policy announcements matched toindustry-level exports and firm-level outcomes. It first pro-vides a comprehensive overview of the country’s industrialpolicy landscape, documenting the scale, timing, sectoralcoverage, and policy instruments associated with indus-trial policy interventions. The analysis then evaluates theeffects of these interventions on both external and domesticout-comes. On the external side, no statistically signifi-cant impact on exports is detected over the sample period,consistent with evidence that structural transformationand export upgrading typically unfold over long horizons.On the domestic side, industrial policy interventions are examined at the firm level along both the extensive andintensive margins. On the extensive margin, industrialpolicies lead to a reduction in the number of active firmswithin the observed sample, suggesting a shift in firm com-position within industry. On the intensive margin, localcontent requirements lead to higher employment but lowercapital investment, while domestic subsidies correspond totransitory declines in earnings. Overall, the findings pointto early adjustment dynamics, particularly labor absorp-tion, rather than immediate gains in exports or profitability,underscoring the importance of improved policy target-ing and coordination to achieve longer-term structuraltransformation. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. IndustrialPolicyandEconomicGrowth:EvidencefromSaudiArabia∗ DilanYang,†MuhammadKhudadadChattha‡ Keywords:IndustrialPolicy,StructuralTransformation,Growth,Trade,FirmDynamicsJELCodes:O25,O40,F14,D22 1Introduction Saudi Arabia’s economic trajectory is currently defined by one of the most ambitious structuraltransformations attempted in the modern era.For decades, the country’s development was syn-onymous with its status as a leading global oil exporter, a position that provided immense fiscalresources but also entrenched a "rentier" economic model characterized by high vulnerability toglobal commodity cycles and the "Dutch Disease".1Saudi Arabia’s historical reliance on oil hasshaped its institutional and social fabric for nearly half a century. Oil and petroleum product rev-enues amounted to about SAR 756.62 billion in 2024, representing around 60% of total governmentrevenue. This necessitates a shift toward economic diversification and structural transformation. At theheart of the metamorphosis strategy is the strategic deployment of industrial policy (IP). Despitethe prevalence of industrial policy, its definition has been the subject of some debates.In thispaper, we follow the IMF definition of industrial policy:"state actions directed at changing thestructure of economic activity — typically by supporting specific sectors or activities relative toothers in order to achieve desired outcomes." Under such definition, industrial policy is selectiveand intentional. Horizontal policies that do not have a selective industry focus are ruled out, mostnotably including policies aiming to improve institutional, physical or social infrastructure with nosectoral preference. In the Saudi Arabia context, industrial policies are typically designed to shapethe composition of economic activity toward higher-value, non-oil sectors. Under the Vision 2030framework, launched in 2016, Saudi Arabia seeks to evolve into a "Global Industrial Powerhouse",operationalizing this goal through high-profile programs such as the National Industrial Develop-ment and Logistics Program (NIDLP) and the National Industrial Strategy (NIS). These strategiesaim to double industrial exports, integrate Saudi factories into global supply chains, and fosterexport-led growth to reduce oil dependency. This strategic pivot occurs against the backdrop of a long-standing debate on the effectivenessof industrial policy. Proponents argue that industrial policy can address market failures, coordinatelarge-scale investments, and support infant industries, while critics emphasize the risks of govern-ment failure, including resource misallocation, rent-seeking, and ine