澳大利亚：揭示劳动力市场的韧性（英）2026

Australia: UnpackingLabor Market Resilience Monica Petrescu, John Spray, Ni Wang, and Yuanyan Sophia Zhang SIP/2026/011 2026FEB IMF Selected Issues Paper Asia and Pacific Department Australia: Unpacking Labor Market Resilience Prepared by Monica Petrescu, John Spray, Ni Wang, and Yuanyan Sophia Zhang* Authorized for distribution by Lamin Leigh IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it was ABSTRACT:Australia’s labor market has remained resilient despite slower growth, with strong employmentgains and low unemployment but limited wage pressure. This paper argues that recent dynamics reflect bothcyclical and structural forces. First, headline indicators such as vacancies and unemployment may overstatecyclical tightness, partly due to sectoral shifts like healthcare expansion. Second, rapid labor supply growth RECOMMENDED CITATION:Petrescu, M., Spray, J., Wang, N., & Zhang, Y. S. (2026). Australia: UnpackingLabor Market Resilience. SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Australia: Unpacking Labor Prepared by Monica Petrescu, John Spray, Ni Wang, and Yuanyan AUSTRALIA SELECTED ISSUES January 21, 2026 ApprovedByAsia and PacificDepartment PreparedbyMonica Petrescu,John Spray, Ni Wang,andYuanyan Sophia ZhangwithcontributionsfromSamikshya CONTENTS AUSTRALIA: UNPACKING LABOR MARKET RESILIENCE____________________________3 A. A Snapshot of Labor Market Dynamics in Australia__________________________________3B. Paradox 1: Persistently Low Unemployment Rates and High Job Vacancies Despite aCooling Economy_______________________________________________________________________7C. Paradox 2: Persistent Strength of Labor Force Participation Post Pandemic________12 Figures 1. Labor Market Conditions in Australia_________________________________________________42. Labor Market Conditions in Peer Economies_________________________________________53. Labor Market Transitions_____________________________________________________________84. Vacancies and Labor Demand in Australia_________________________________________105. Labor Supply_______________________________________________________________________126. Monetary Tightening and the Cost-of-Living Impacts on Labor Supply____________147. Wages and Drivers_________________________________________________________________188. Sector Level Productivity and Wages_______________________________________________23 Tables 1. Australia: Wage Phillips Curve Regressions_________________________________________212. Australia: Wage Phillips Curves at Sector Level_____________________________________25 Annexes I. Counterfactual Unemployment and Vacancy Rates_________________________________28II. Monetary Policy and Labor Supply_________________________________________________30III. Estimating the Wage Phillips Curve________________________________________________31 References____________________________________________________________________________________33 AUSTRALIA: UNPACKINGLABOR MARKETRESILIENCE The Australianlabor markethas displayed remarkable resilience in recent years, even as economicgrowth slowed.Persistentlystrong labor demandmetrapidgrowth inlabor supply,supportingsolidemploymentgainsandkeepingunemploymentratescontained.At the same time,resilience has nottranslated into significantwagepressures.Thispaperexploresstructural and cyclicalfactorsbehind Thispaperfinds that significant shifts in cyclical and structural components of labor demand andsupply in recent years havetemporarilyreshaped labor market dynamics, driving headline indicatorsto overstate cyclical tightness, andmay havecontributedto atemporarily lower estimate of theNAIRU.First,headlineindicatorssuch as vacanciesand unemploymentratesmayhaveoverstatedthecyclical strength of the labormarket.Headline indicators were also influenced bystructural shifts,includingalargeexpansion in the healthcare sector.Second,robustlaborsupply growthreflectednot A.A Snapshot of Labor MarketDynamicsin Australia 1.Australia’s labor market has been remarkably resilient in the post-pandemic period,evenwheneconomicgrowth slowed.Labordemandsurgedasthe economyrecoveredafterpandemic restrictions were lifted in late 2021,withjob vacancies reachingrecord highsin 2022;while declining since,vacanciesremain well abovehistorictrends.At the same time, since 2021,strongnet migration andrisingparticipation rateshaveboosted labor supply.Together,robust 2.Labor market resilience was observed across many advanced economies (AEs) in the •Labor markets tightened across AEs in the post-pandemic period, but Australia is among the fewwhere labor demand has remained persistently elevated and unemployment has remained belowpre-pandemicaverages. Job vacancies rose rapidly acrossAEsin 2021-2022, as pandemic-relatedrestrictions easedand economies rebounded, and then declined in subsequent years,asfiscaland mon