汽车：在开局不利之后，关注Mar的新车型

Eyes onnewmodels from Mar after a weak start TenChineseNEV makers/brandsincludingLi Auto,Xpeng,NIO, BYD, Great Wall,Galaxy,Zeekr,Leapmotor,Xiaomiand Voyahreported theirFeb 2026salesvolumes on 1Mar 2026.TotalNEVsales volume combinedfell 24% YoY (rangingfrom-50% to +70%) and14%MoM (ranging from-29% to0%)amidChinese New China Auto Sector Ji SHI, CFA(852) 3761 8728shiji@cmbi.com.hk Li Auto and NIO in line, Xpengmissed.Li Auto’s Feb deliveriesonlyfell 5%MoM to about 26,000 units, better than most peers, thanks to thei6launchedat the end of Sep 2025. Its Jan-Feb sales volumecombinedfell 4% YoY to Wenjing DOU, CFA(852) 6939 4751douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk about 54,000 units. We believethe redesigned L-series, starting from theL9in 2Q26,should be critical toachievingits full-year sales volume target of over0.5mn units. Austin Liang(852) 3900 0856austinliang@cmbi.com.hk Xpeng’s Feb deliveries fell 24% MoM to about 15,000 units, lower than ourprior expectation. Its Jan-Feb cumulative sales volume fell 42% YoY to about35,000 units, despite the rollouts of several brand-new EREVs in the past four months (theX9in Nov 2025,P7+andG7in Jan 2026). Xpeng plans to launchtheP7 MaxandG6EREV in Mar 2026. NIO’s Feb deliveries fell 23% MoM to about 21,000 units, with the NIO brandcontributing about 15,000 units.Its Jan-Feb sales volumecombinedrose 77% YoY to about 48,000 units, driven by thenew-generationES8. Although NIO madea profitat net level (non-GAAP)in 4Q25 for the first timein history, webelieveitstill faces challengesin 2026,as itsnew orders from new modelshavebeenfallingfaster than ourpriorexpectation, based on our channel BYD and Geely resilient on exports, Leapmotor to launch theA10in Mar. BYD’spassenger-vehiclewholesalevolume fell 9% MoM to about 188,000units in Feb, with Jan-Feb cumulativewholesalevolume falling 36% YoY toabout 393,000 units. We expect BYD to roll out aplethoraof newmodels withcutting-edgetechnologies in Mar,at the same pace as previous years, whichcould be a positive catalyst for its share price, in our view.Geely’sNEVwholesale volume, includingGalaxy, Zeekr and Lynk & Co, rose 10% YoY inthe first two months of 2026, aided by Zeekr. We expect such resilience to continue given the contribution of well received new models launchedafterSep 2025.Leapmotor’s wholesale volume fell 12% MoM to about 28,000units in Feb, with Jan-Feb cumulativewholesalevolume falling 19% YoY to Related Reports:“China Auto Sector-Auto-Weak 4Q25 sales may lead to earning miss”–21 Jan 2026 “China Auto Sector-2026 Outlook: Second halfof the NEV match”–5 Dec2025 NEVretail sales volumetofall 23% YoYinthe first two months of 2026. We project NEV retail sales volume inFeb 2026tofall 15% MoM to about0.48mn units, with Jan-Feb retail sales volume falling 23% YoY to about1.0mn units. We estimate the NEV market sharecouldfall to about 40% inthe first two months of 2026,followingthe halved purchase-tax benefitsfrom Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part,certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensationwas, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) will Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in the This report or any information contained herein, have been prepared by theCMBIGM, solely for the purpose of supplying information to the clients ofCMBIGMor its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed.This report is not and should not be construedas an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or any interest insecurities or enter into any transaction.NeitherCMBIGMnor any of its affiliates,