全球自动化：中国2025年最新需求及市场份额趋势

Global Automation: The latest demand and market share trends We present the latest Chinese industrial automation industry trends to the end of 2025. Ourreaders can download the data here for robots and here for other automation products. Jay Huang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2631jay.huang@bernsteinsg.com FA demand continued to recover in 2H25.Industrial robot shipments grew 10%YoY (Exhibit 25). The strong momentum was broad-based in batteries, autos & parts,electronics, and other fragmented industries, along with a further easing of headwinds fromsolar. Growth in cobot shipments also remained strong (+34% YoY, Exhibit 27), with broad- Weibin Liang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2666weibin.liang@bernsteinsg.com Dien Wang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2622dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com EV battery demand recovery continued, while the solar sector remained weak butshowed signs of stabilizing.Automation demand from the battery vertical remainedstrong in 2H25, supported by high utilization rates, increased capital expenditure by leadingbattery manufacturers, and emerging demand from energy storage (Exhibit 2 and Exhibit Six-axis robots and PLCs are the key battlefields of import substitution.In multiplesegments, local companies have already become market leaders in China, with marketshares approaching their natural ceilings, such as Inovance in AC servo (Exhibit 7) and low-voltage VFD (Exhibit 9). In cobots, Rokae (private) maintained strong momentum in marketshare gains, while JAKA and AUBO (both private) maintain their market share (Exhibit 39).In the heavy six-axis robot segment, Estun continued to steadily increase its market share(Exhibit 34). KUKA (a subsidiary of Midea) continued its market share gains in both light In PLCs (Exhibit 11 and Exhibit 13), the pace of import substitution has moderatedcompared to 2021–2022. One reason is that Chinese companies have already capturedthe low-hanging fruits. Many of the remaining applications either have higher reliabilityrequirements (e.g. large PLC in process industries) or are highly integrated with industrialsoftware (hence the solid share trend of Siemens). In CNC (Exhibit 15) and advanced In industrial robots, the end-industry mix remained stable, with the automotive and partssector accounting for the low-30%, electronics in the low-20%, new energy sectorscontributing in the low-to-mid teens, and low-20% coming from a broad range of otherindustries (Exhibit 24). In cobots, the end-industry contributions were approximately 30% DETAILS The figures are based on preliminary release from MIR Databank. Final revision may contain revisions, but we believe the keytrends discussed here will hold. MIR classifies six-axis robot with payload >20kg as heavy six-axis robot. MIR classifies PLCsinto small PLCs and medium/large PLCs based on production specifications and main applications.We use shipment volume to DEMANDS FROM BATTERY AND SOLAR INDUSTRY Note: We use shipment volume to calculate % of demand from solar industry forindustrial robot, and sales value for AC servo, PLC, and VFD.Source: MIR Databank, Bernstein analysis Note: We use shipment volume to calculate % of demand from battery industryfor industrial robot, and sales value for AC servo, PLC, and VFD.Source: MIR Databank, Bernstein analysis Note: We use shipment volume to calculate % of demand from solar industry forindustrial robot, and sales value for AC servo and VFD. Note: ABB, Schneider are covered by Bernstein European Capital Goods teams, Delta is covered by Bernstein Asia Tech Hardware teams. Siemens, INVT, Mitsubishi,Yaskawa and Veichi are not covered by Bernstein.Source: MIR Databank, Bernstein analysis Note: MIR Databank classifies PLCs into small PLCs and medium/large PLCs based on production specifications and main applications. Schneider is covered byBernstein European Capital Goods teams, Delta is covered by Bernstein Asia Tech Hardware teams. Siemens, Mitsubishi, Omron, Xinje, and Panasonic are notcovered by Bernstein. SENSORS ROBOTICS The figures are based on preliminary release from MIR Databank. Final revision may contain revisions, but we believe the keytrends discussed here will hold. MIR classifies six-axis robot with payload larger than 20kg as heavy six-axis robot. Six-axis robot SCARA robot INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Reiterate Outperform for FANUC, Inovance, and Harmonic Drive; Market-Perform for Estun. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社). Bernstein is part of