老挝人民民主共和国国家气候与发展报告

World Bank Group Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized 2026 © 2026 The World Bank Group Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD),the International Development Association (IDA), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and theMultilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), collectively known as The World Bank Group, withexternal contributors. The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the content includedin this work, or the conclusions or judgments described herein, and accepts no responsibility or liabilityfor any omissions or errors (including, without limitation, typographical errors and technical errors) in thecontent whatsoever or for reliance thereon. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes andother information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of any of the organizationsof The World Bank Group concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptanceof such boundaries. The citation of works authored by others does not mean The World Bank Group en-dorses the views expressed by those authors or the content of their works. The findings, interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of IBRD/IDA, IFC and MIGA,their respective Boards of Executive Directors, and the governments they represent. The contents of this work are intended for general informational purposes only and are not intended toconstitute legal, securities, or investment advice, an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any invest-ment, or a solicitation of any type. Some of the organizations of The World Bank Group or their affiliatesmay have an investment in, provide other advice or services to, or otherwise have a financial interest in,certain of the companies and parties named herein. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of theprivileges and immunities of any of IBRD/IDA, IFC and MIGA, all of which are specifically reserved. R I G H T S A N D P E R M I S S I O N S The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank Group encourages disseminationof its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as longas full attribution to this work is given and all further permissions that may be required for such use (asnoted herein) are acquired. The World Bank Group does not warrant that the content contained in thiswork will not infringe on the rights of third parties and accepts no responsibility or liability in this regard.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank, 1818H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. P H O T O S F R O Munsplash.compexels.compxhere.compixabay.comflickr.comcommons.wikimedia.org COUNTRYCLIMATE ANDDEVELOPMENTREPORT C HAP TER 2Understandinghow climate& developmentinteract in LaosP. 4 C HAP TER 3Climate& developmentin key areasP. 2 5 C HAP TER 6Conclusions& policyrecommendationsP. 9 8 C HAP TER 4Financing &cross-cuttingreforms C HAP TER 5Climatecommitments,policies,institutions &capacitiesP. 9 1 P. 7 3 BOXES Box 2.1Macroeconomic and microsimulation modeling frameworks used in this report.....................................................13Box 2.2Accounting for transboundary emissions impacts in Laos's electricity sector...........................................................21Box 3.1Transboundary water management issues in the Mekong...........................................................................................43 TABLES Table 2.1Different measures of Laos's carbon footprint................................................................................................................21Table 3.1Criticality analysis for Laos's roads...................................................................................................................................38Table 3.2Incremental investment needs of a low-emissions development pathway for transport relative to BAU(US$ Millions)........................................................................................................................................................................65Table 4.1The climate response is expected to require US$21 billion of additional investment between 2025 and 2050in NPV terms and these investments would be more than offset by cost savings....................................................75Table 4.2A 5 percent ad valorem tax on diesel 4-wheelers and a 10 percent tax on 2 and 3-wheelers could raise US$51million in revenues annually...............................................................................................................................................79Table 5.1Assessment of Laos's