比利时2025年下半年工业报告

Fresh data and insights on semi-industrial andlogistics property at the crossroads of Europe H22025 knightfrank.be/research TheBelgianIndustrialMarket H22025A watershed Occupieractivity year for investment. Semi-industrial Activity in the semi-industrial segment strengthened markedly during H2 2025. Total take-up reached 720,000 sq m,an 88% increase on a semestrial basis, bringing full-year 2025 volumes to just above the five-year average of 1.1million sq m. Own occupier purchases accounted for 51% of take-up during H2. Strengthening semi-industrial demand and elevated H2 2025 investment activityhighlight the depth of international capital and a resilient Belgian occupier base. The market benefited from substantially higher demand across all three regions in the second half of the year.Greater Brussels recorded its strongest quarter in at least the past five years, while both Flanders and Walloniaexperienced solid year-end activity, delivering vintage although not record Q4 results. BelgianGDP growthis expected to remain modest,forecast at 1.1% in 2026. Although inflation is easingand confidence among households is improving,domestic demand will stay constrained. Householdpurchasing power is set to rise only slightly, partly dueto cuts in unemployment benefits. Domestic demandis projected to grow at a slightly faster pace in 2026 and2027. OccupierTrendsIndicatorsH2 2025 to fluctuations in global demand, and the combination ofThe broader context behind the segment’s strong performance calls for a degree of caution. The upswing in activitycontrasts with a noted and well-documented downturn in industrial economic indicators, while the widermacroeconomic environment remains complex and difficult to interpret. Belgium’s industrial base is highly exposed tighter financial conditions, fragile business confidenceand uncertain external dynamics raises questions about themarket’s capacity to sustain its current momentum.Although recent figures suggest renewed strength, thesecontradictory signals warrant a measured view on thedurability of this recovery. Business services are experiencing weaker activity andrising margin pressure, which is prompting firms toaccelerate digitalisation and cost reduction. Logisticsand warehousing activity remains broadly stable,despite persistently tight margins, especially inlogistics. The limited availability of large development sitescontinues to constrain average deal sizes. However,although the market remains dominated by smallertransactions, H2 also delivered a notable number ofabove-average sized deals. Alongside the steady flow ofunits in the 100- to 400 sq m bracket, the second half of theyear included a handful of sizeable purchases between10,000 and 25,000 sq m, demonstrating that largerrequirements persist and can be met when suitableopportunities come to market. External demand is expected to stay subdued in 2026because of weak industrial activity in the eurozone anda broader slowdown in global trade. US tariffs haveadded pressure on Belgian exports, although theirimpact was partly offset by frontloaded shipments in2025. Exports are expected to recover from 2026 aswage growth moderates and competitivenessimproves. In the long term, unpredictable marketconditions continue to limit business planning. Logistics Inflationis forecast to decrease in 2026, driven bylower price pressures for industrial goods and energy,before rising in 2027 following an increase in energyprices, partly reflecting the introduction of ETS relatedcosts. The logistics occupier market remained subdued in H2,despite some notable highlights. Three of the year’s fivelargest transactions were recorded during the H2 (see tablebelow), each ranging between 40,000- and 50,000 sq m,providing a degree of momentum in an otherwise softenvironment. Total take-up reached 386,000 sq m in H2,bringing the full-year 2025 figure to 674,000 sq m, thelowest annual total in recent years. One encouragingelement lies in the number of transactions, with 53 dealsconcluded in 2025 compared with 35 in 2024, indicating thatoccupier interest remains broad even if average deal sizesare materially lower. Employment in Belgium is expected to increase by around 35,000–40,000 jobs in 2026, while unemploymentis projected to remain broadly stable or rise slightly. The aforementioned unemployment reform will pushsome jobseekers out of the labour force, leading to a slight contraction in participation. Employment growth, which slowed in 2024 due to industrial job losses, is set to pick up as investment improvesand labour market reforms take effect. The unemployment rate is projected to move from 6.0 % in 2025 to 6.2 %by the end of 2026 as a short-term consequence of labour market and pension reforms, before decreasingslightly in 2027. Ageing costs (pension and healthcare), interest payments and defence spending are expected to driveexpenditure up. Defence outlays are projected to rise gradually towards 2 % of GDP in 2027