定量视角：美国市场洞察（英）

QUANT RESEARCH US Market Insights A QUANTITATIVE PERSPECTIVE ONUS PRIVATE MARKETS Introduction PitchBook Data, Inc. Nizar TarhuniExecutive Vice President of Research & Market IntelligenceDaniel Cook, CFAGlobal Head of Quantitative Research & Market IntelligenceZane Carmean, CFA, CAIADirector of Quantitative Research As we reflect on 2025, the year stands out as one defined by uncertainty and contradiction. Optimismopened the year, fueled by expectations that a probusiness administration would usher in a moreaccommodative regulatory and tax environment. That enthusiasm was quickly tested as tariffs setheadlines and moved markets, raising concerns about renewed inflationary pressure, supply-chaindistortions, and slower global growth. Research Zane Carmean, CFA, CAIADirector of Quantitative Researchzane.carmean@pitchbook.com Yet, despite those geopolitical shocks, volatility across public markets remained surprisinglyconstrained for much of the year, credit conditions loosened, and risk assets in public markets carriedon with another year of above-average returns. Inflation has remained moderate, even as tariffs kickedin, but remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) 2% target. Fears of a material labor-market deterioration or an AI-driven asset bubble have yet to translate into meaningful economicheadwinds, even as signals elsewhere complicate the narrative. Gold and silver surged throughout theyear, and the dollar was significantly repriced against major global currencies as investors quietlyhedged against longer-term macroeconomic uncertainty. Nathan Schwartz, CFASenior Quantitative Research Analystnathan.schwartz@pitchbook.com Encouragingly, PE and VC dealmaking and exit markets improved as 2025 progressed, restoringcautious confidence that 2026 could deliver sustained momentum. That recovery is critically needed,particularly on the exit front. Distributions to LPs remain well below historical norms, fund NAVscontinue to age, and the private capital ecosystem is increasingly reliant on a rapidly growingsecondaries market to unlock liquidity. Real estate, meanwhile, remains in a sluggish state, andinvestors are hopeful that further rate cuts will start a new upcycle. In credit markets, borrowing costshave come down as base rates and spreads have each fallen. However, we will be watching for signsthat recent bankruptcy headlines translate into more systemic risks. Miles OstroffAssociate Quantitative Research Analystmiles.ostroff@pitchbook.com Jacobie FullertonQuantitative Research Analystjacobie.fullerton@pitchbook.com This edition of US Market Insights offers a comprehensive view of how these macro developments areshaping activity across the private capital spectrum. From asset allocation to deal flow, we break downthe forces driving decision-making in an ever-evolving market. Contact pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Key takeaways •Macro landscape:Despite ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions, inflation has remainedrange-bound above the Fed’s 2% target. The labor market is not flashing urgent warningsigns, but payrolls are flat and the unemployment rate has been gradually ticking upward.This leaves policymakers in a gray zone and with diverging opinions over the appropriatepath for rates. Markets, however, are pricing in two to three cuts through the remainder ofthe year and into the next (pages 8,9, and10). •Venture capital:Our early-stage dealmaking indicator points to a more startup-friendlyenvironment for AI companies, while investor leverage remains firmly in place across allother segments (page 55). •Venture capital:Secondary trading is gaining traction in VC as liquidity pressures persist.A growing share of recently funded companies are trading on the secondary market, oftenat discounts to peak-era valuations. Concurrently, unicorn valuations grew sharply, addingto a backlog of private company value potentially looking for an exit (pages 58and59). •Macro landscape:The confluence of rising US debt burdens, concerns around Fedindependence, and difficult trade relations have weighed on the US dollar. At the sametime, investors have rotated into traditional safe havens, driving asymptotic growth in goldand silver prices (page 12). •Private debt:A reduced opportunity set for new LBOs has weighed on leveraged loan anddirect lending issuance tied to buyout activity. Direct lending is still the preferred financingavenue for LBOs, and borrowers are willing to pay the premium over BSL. If cost sensitivitygrows, borrowers may find their way back to the syndicated market (pages 67,68, and70). •Asset allocation:Evergreen fund structures are driving growth in the private wealthchannel with a record number of new fund launches in 2025. As many of these evergreenproducts are unproven, strategy-aware benchmarks will be essential for performanceevaluation, and the Morningstar PitchBook US Evergreen Fund Indexes address this need.(pages 18and21). •Private debt:With credit