美国私募股权的定量视角：虚假启动

IntroductionAs 2022 gave way to 2025. there was a general sense of coptimisn that markets: might hecntcring a ncw cycle of sustaincd growtlh and lawcr borrowing costs-conditions that wouldlavar inveslors and dealrriakers alike. However, Lhal oplimism rnay have been shorl-lived. InQ1 zozs, fallcwing 11 consecutive quarters af expansian, the us cconcmy recorded its first realGDP contraction since 2022. while this headline figure suggests a cyclical shift, the underlyingto front-run anticipated tariff increases. Nevertheless, the rise in trade policy uncertainty haslell rmarkel parlicipanls across Lhe board unsellled. The Federal Reserve (Lhe Fed) now findsitselfwalkingatightroge,acknowledgingthatpralongedtariffscouldfuelbothinflationandunemploymentMarkets reacted t the taritt annauncement with a sharp uotick ig valatility. while it is tterargucd that PE returns-unlikc public cquity rcturns-arc insulated from such fluctuatians.our proxies lor buvoul fund perlorrnarce and daily tslirrnaLes af Pe Iunc relurns indicale lhalPt was impacted by the April market imovement just as acutely.The prospect of slowina economic growth, elevated inflation,weak business confidence, andwidening credit spreads presents a challenging environment for buyout activity. n fact. whenwe model buyout deal activity under scenarios where these variables follow their typical pathsduring recessionary periods, Lhe resulls pcinl lo a subslanlial decline in buycul deal value.Thc prcssurcs huilding on thc buy sidc arc: mirrarad on the cxit front. whilc PF cxit valuc hasrebounded in recent quarters, a substantial backlog of unrealizec company value remains. Theslow pace cof exits continues to create ripple effects throughout the drawdown capitalflywheel.Withfewer realizations,fund managers are forced to extend holding periods beyondhislorical norris. leadirng Lo lower-Lhan-expecled disribulions anid ar increasing share ol nelassct valu: (NAv) ticd up in aging asscts. As NAv continues ta maturc: without mcaningfulliquidity events, the mismatch between capital deployment and return of capital widens.campounding pressure on LPs and fundraising pipelines.G> 7O75 CUANTITATIVE FERSP:- VES REFORT : :-11 : PitchBook Data, Inc.Nizar Tarhuni -xt.ivt: vist: Frn:id:t t n:tartl &. Markat rt ligane.Daniel Cook, CFA tehe:l Haa el ulilalise RH-Fath & Ma ke Inlel'gartp:Zane Carmean, CFA, CAIA Lirrl: nl c.enilal ve liesEar:hResearchAndrew Akers, cFA I ::l cuitaliv: F:trrt:h Anal:!atrw.aktr:a'thhoak tomNathan Schwartz, CFA se isr Q.entitat ve Kesear:h ralyst"ehar.srhwertzpit: brok conMiles Ostroff Associata Ciuantitativ Rascarch na ystils.ast cfe:piclbco .cmContactplin:tit talrschp't:h:o:k.t:m PG Z : ▪▪▪▪▪Key takeaways. Real GDp contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% in Q1 2025, the first dec:linesince 2o22. However. the headline figure was skewed by a surge in imports, asbusinesses and consurmiers acceleraled purchases ahead al expecled Larill hikes.Ihis effect is likely to reverse as inventories are depleted and firms explore:alternative productionchannels domestically(. The Fed is navigating a delicate balance between the risks of rising unemplyrmentand pcrsistent inflation.opting to kecp its benchmark ratc unchangcd at thc Mayrmeeling.Chair Jerorre Powell acknowledged lhal suslained Lariffs are likely LoPush inflaticn and unemplcyment higher while weighing on economic grcwth. The effective Us tariff rate is projected to stirge from 2.4'x, the level prior to thetariff announcements. to 27.s% once all measures are fully implemented. Evenaller subsliluling away Irorn chinese goods. lhe rale is slill eslirna led al 18%.roughly 7.5x higher than th: prc-announcanient Igvel (: Buyout portfolias and public srmall-cap equity benchrnarks exhibit different sectorexpcsures, resulting in varying sensitivities to trade policy risk. Compared withpublic benchmarks,buyout portfolios are overweight in healthcare andseclcrswilh relalively low lariff exposlre-underwcight in commgrcial banks and othr financial scrvicgs. which also facclimitedtariffimpactZand). Theprovideaframewrkfarestimating Pe fund returns based on macroeconomic conditions. By applying theBarorreler's coelficienls lc daily observable inpuls, such as equily relurns, rnarkelreturn in April, which c:losely tracked the sharp derline across public market riskassets