平衡法案：美国私募股权的定量视角

QUANT RESEARCHBalancing Act A QUANTITATIVE PERSPECTIVE ONUS PRIVATE EQUITY Introduction PitchBook Data, Inc. Nizar TarhuniExecutive Vice President of Research & Market IntelligenceDaniel Cook, CFAGlobal Head of Quantitative Research & Market Intelligence Moving into the end of 2025, it seems that the US economy and markets are flashing all threecolors of the traffic light at once and offering little clarity on where things may head next.Consumers and businesses remain broadly pessimistic, and while the labor market hassoftened, no single indicator is raising alarm. Inflation remains above target, and tariffs Research Andrew Akers, CFALead Quantitative Research Analystandrew.akers@pitchbook.com Amid these crosscurrents, private markets are thawing. After a couple of years of dismal dealand exit activity, PE is staging a comeback. Both deal and exit volumes have experiencedsignificant upswings and moved above their long-run trends, though there remains aconsiderable overhang of delayed transactions still waiting to close. With the economicoutlook uncertain, we map out where buyout activity could land under a range ofmacroeconomic scenarios. To maintain the pace of dealmaking seen over the past two Nathan Schwartz, CFASenior Quantitative Research Analystnathan.schwartz@pitchbook.com At the same time, buyout managers are returning more capital to investors than two yearsago, but distribution yields are still below historical averages. When looking at what expected Taylor Criswell, CFASenior Quantitative Research Analysttaylor.criswell@pitchbook.com Miles OstroffAssociate Quantitative Research Analystmiles.ostroff@pitchbook.com Looking under the hood of this recent flurry of activity, the signals remain mixed. Core buyoutfundamentals are stable: Valuation multiples have held firm, leverage levels are steady, debtloads have improved, and cash coverage remains healthy. Yet credit markets look slightly Contact pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com For now, buyout’s rebound appears real, but its durability depends on how the broadereconomy and credit conditions evolve in the months ahead. Key takeaways •The labor picture is holding up, but the underlying trends are weakening. Openpositions have declined significantly over the past three years, and while hiring has •Modeling the relationship between buyout deal value and macroeconomic driversshows that sustaining current levels of deal activity would require further •PE exit activity rebounded in mid-2025 after two years of weakness that created abuildup of unrealized exits relative to long-term trends. Sustained improvement in •The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, and three more cuts arepriced in through next year. In its October statement, the Fed noted “downsiderisks to employment rose in recent months” and inflation remains “somewhat •Distribution yields have improved from the lows of 2023 but remain belowhistorical norms. Adjusting for recent exit volumes, the true distribution yieldlooks even weaker, implying that managers are relying on liquidity management •GDP growth rebounded in Q2, though the improvement was largely mechanical.Net exports rose as firms drew down domestic inventories instead of purchasingimported goods. The Q3 GDP report, delayed by the government shutdown, will •Fundraising data is inherently lagged, as fund closes take time to be reported. Bymodeling the relationship between prior-year distribution yields and subsequentfundraising activity, we can estimate where commitments are headed over the •Loan borrowing costs have fallen by nearly 3% as base rates decline and creditspreads tighten. Beneath the surface, signs of stress may be bubbling. Distressedexchanges meaningfully outpace defaults, the downgrade-to-upgrade ratio has •Effective manager selection is a key driver of buyout performance. Investors whoconsistently back stronger managers, or sidestep weaker ones, can capture an additional 35 to 64 basis points in annualized excess returns, on average (page40). •Public BDCs are trading at nearly a 10% discount to NAV, suggesting markets maybe questioning the strength of their underlying loan books. The gap also reflects •Timing also matters when building a buyout allocation. Investors who beganallocating to buyout funds in the years leading up to the GFC experienced •Buyout activity strengthened in Q3 2025, rising above its long-term trend for thefirst time since 2022. After two years of subdued dealmaking, a backlog of Mixed signals MIXED SIGNALS Consumers and businesses agree that the current environment is a difficult one. Sentiment indexes for both sectors havebeen below their respective medians for the longest consecutive period since 1990… MIXED SIGNALS …and yet markets remain unphased. Volatility in equities and treasuries has calmed from the initial shock of Liberation Day,and the S&P 500 continues to push past high-water marks. Gold, often the symbol of investor caution, ha