黄金愿景2045：从贸易中获益（英）2026

Golden Vision 2045:Reaping the Gains from Ashique Habib SIP/2026/007 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultationswith member countries.It is based on the informationavailable at the time it was completed on 2026FEB IMF Selected Issues PaperAsia and Pacific Department Golden Vision 2045: Reaping the Gains from Trade: Indonesia Authorized for distribution by Maria Gonzalez IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it was ABSTRACT:Indonesia has been pursuing a broad push towards greater trade openness with regional andglobal partners, seeking to leverage external demand to reach high-income status by 2045. This welcome andtimely effort comes amid ongoing trade policy shocks. Our analysis suggests that deeper trade integration,focusing on reducing non-tariff barriers, along with complementary structural reforms, can generate significantGDP gains for Indonesia. These gains can come from unilateral actions on reducing non-tariff barriers affectingimports, which would be amplified by increasing market access in the context of trade agreements with majorpartners. Alongside trade policy, structural reforms in other areas—such as human capital and logistics—can RECOMMENDED CITATION:Habib, Ashique. Golden Vision 2045: Reaping the Gains from Trade. IMFselected Issues Paper (SIP/26/006). Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund. SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Golden Vision 2045: Reaping theGains from Trade Indonesia Prepared by Ashique Habib INDONESIA SELECTED ISSUES December 16, 2025 ApprovedByAsia and Pacific Prepared byAshique Habib, with research support fromShutong Niu (APD). CONTENTS GOLDEN VISION 2045: REAPING THE GAINS FROM TRADE _______________________3 A. Key Policies and Structural Factors Affecting Trade __________________________________4B. Model and Scenario Description _____________________________________________________7C. Main Results _______________________________________________________________________10D. Exploiting Complementarities between Trade Integration and Other StructuralReforms ___________________________________________________________________________13E. Trade-Induced Investments and Production Changes can Amplify Gains___________14 References____________________________________________________________________________ 17 FIGURES 1. Exports to Major Partners ____________________________________________________________32. Tariffs and Non-Tariff Restrictions____________________________________________________5 3. Depth Measures with Key Partners and Empirical Relationship with Trade ___________6 4. Logistics and Human Capital, and Relationship to Trade Costs_______________________7 6. Real GDP Gains_____________________________________________________________________ 10 7. Impact of Unilateral Trade Opening on Sectoral Real Value Added ________________ 11 8. Impact of Trade Agreements on Sectoral Real Value Added _______________________ 12 GOLDEN VISION 2045: REAPING THE GAINS FROM Indonesia has been pursuing a broad push towards greater trade openness with regional and globalpartners, seeking to leverage external demand to reach high-income status by 2045. This welcome andtimely effort comes amid ongoing trade policy shocks. Our analysis suggests that deeper tradeintegration, focusing on reducing non-tariff barriers, along with complementary structural reforms, cangenerate significant GDP gains for Indonesia. These gains can come from unilateral actions onreducing non-tariff barriers affecting imports, which would be amplified by increasing market access inthe context of trade agreements with major partners. Alongside trade policy, structural reforms in other 1.Indonesia has been pursuing deeper trade integration with regional and global partners. This push has delivered important achievements, such as new trade agreements with the EU and Canada. The effort is urgent tosupport Indonesia’s Golden Vision toreach high-income status by 2045, aseconomies that have made such atransition successfully—such as the AsianMiracle success stories—have relied ontrade as an important growth driver.However, in recent years the contribution partners show diversification (Figure 1), amid trade policy shocks, deeper trade integration with abroad set of partners is seen as an important response to foster resilience (IMF 2025; Rotunno and 1.This paper assesses the potential gains from deeper trade integration for Indonesia.First, it examines the landscape of policies and structural factors which may be holding back trade— INDONESIA drawing on the substantial literature investigating such barriers in the country as well as fromcross-country lessons, including from ongoing IMF research. Second, it uses general equilibriummodel-based simulations to investigate deeper integration w