黄金愿景2045：充分利用公共投资：印度尼西亚（英）2026

Golden Vision 2045:Making The Most Out ofPublic Investment Tsendsuren Batsuuri, Raju Huidrom, and Philippe Wingender SIP/2026/006 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultationswith member countries.It is based on the informationavailable at the time it was completed onDecember 16, 2025. This paper is also published separatelyas IMF Country Report No. 26/011 2026FEB IMF Selected Issues Paper Asia and Pacific Department Golden Vision 2045: Making The Most Out of Public Investment: IndonesiaPrepared by Tsendsuren Batsuuri, Raju Huidrom, and Philippe Wingender Authorized for distribution by Maria GonzalezFebruary2026 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on December 16, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No.26/011. ABSTRACT:Aside from horizontal structural reforms, raising public investment should be a key pillar ofIndonesia’s pursuit of its Vision 2045. However, this must be complemented by policies aimed at enhancing theefficiency of public investment, thereby maximizing its impact. Mobilizing additional revenues will create thefiscal space needed to scale up the public investment while maintaining compliance with Indonesia’slongstanding fiscal rules. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Tsendsuren Batsuuri, Raju Huidrom, and Philippe Wingender. Golden Vision2045: Making The Most Out of Public Investment. IMF selected Issues Paper (SIP/26/006). Washington, D.C.:International Monetary Fund. Golden Vision 2045: Making TheMost Out of Public Investment Indonesia Prepared by Tsendsuren Batsuuri,Raju Huidrom, and Philippe Wingender1 INDONESIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByAsia and PacificDepartment Prepared byRaju Huidrom (APD),Philippe WingenderandTsendsuren Batsuuri (both RES) with research support fromAgnes Isnawangsih and Shutong Niu (both APD). CONTENTS GOLDEN VISION 2045: MAKING THE MOST OUT OF PUBLIC INVESTMENT_______3 A. Introduction _________________________________________________________________________3B. Methodology ________________________________________________________________________5C. Results _______________________________________________________________________________7D. Conclusions and Policy Issues______________________________________________________10 References____________________________________________________________________________ 13 ANNEX I. Technical Details ____________________________________________________________________ 11 GOLDEN VISION 2045: MAKING THE MOST OUT OFPUBLIC INVESTMENT1 Aside from horizontal structural reforms, raising public investment should be a key pillar of Indonesia’spursuit of its Vision 2045. However, this must be complemented by policies aimed at enhancing theefficiency of public investment, thereby maximizing its impact. Mobilizing additional revenues willcreate the fiscal space needed to scale up the public investment while maintaining compliance withIndonesia’s longstanding fiscal rules. A.Introduction 1.Indonesia has set an ambitious target of achieving high-income status by 2045. Currently classified as an upper-middle income country, reaching this goal—Golden Vision 2045—would require a sustained high rate of real growth—estimated around 5½ -6½ percent annuallyover the next two decades (Annex I.A). As highlighted in previous IMF work, achieving this targetwould require broad-based structural reforms (IMF 2024). Boosting public investment—efficiently and prudently—is crucial for the growth agenda. This would help close current gaps in physical—and human—capital needed to bolstergrowth. Indonesia’s public stock of capital per-capita is only a quarter of that of the advancedeconomies. Enhancing the efficiency of public investment is also important. Indonesia’s efficiencygap—the difference between actual public spending outcomes and the best achievable outcomeswith the same resources (IMF 2025)—remains large in international comparison.2After a steadydecline beginning in the 1990s, the efficiency gap edged up in recent years, indicating a deterioration in spending efficiency. This recent trend is also mirrored by a rise in the IncrementalCapital Output Ratio (ICOR), implying that a larger investment is required for the same unit increasein output. Finally, fiscal prudence is a key pillar of this agenda with plans for boosting investmentaccommodated within Indonesia’s longstanding fiscal rules (Indonesia’s Staff Report 2025). 3.This paper presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of public investment onactivity—the multiplier—and the role of spending efficiency therein. The public investmentmultiplier is the change in real output for a unit increase in real public investment.3We use twocomplementary approaches to assess the size of the public investment multiplier for Indonesia. •Empi