巴哈马：选定问题

THE BAHAMAS SELECTED ISSUES ThisSelected IssuespaperonThe Bahamaswas prepared by a staff team of theInternational Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultationwith the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted onJanuary 20, 2026. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. THE BAHAMAS SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByWestern HemisphereDepartment Prepared By:María Alexandra Castellanos under thesupervision and guidance of Jorge Salas and assistance ofPablo Tillan (all WHD). CONTENTS LABOR MARKET CHALLENGES IN THE BAHAMAS: ASSESSING SOURCES OFVULNERABLE AND INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT_____________________________________2 A.Background__________________________________________________________________________2B. Overview of The Bahamas’ Labor Market_____________________________________________5C. Self-Employment and Informal Work Arrangements_________________________________6D. Analyzing Labor Income Gaps_____________________________________________________10E. Conclusion_________________________________________________________________________13 BOXES 1. Data and Terminology_______________________________________________________________42. Vulnerable and Informal Employment from a Cross-Country Perspective____________93. Methodology______________________________________________________________________11 FIGURES 1. Labor Market Indicators______________________________________________________________62. Self-Employment_____________________________________________________________________73. Self-Employment and Working Time_________________________________________________94. Earnings Differentials between Self-Employed and Private Employees_____________10 TABLE 1. Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition of Annual Labor Income___________________________12 APPENDICES I. Job Instability, Informality and Access to Credit_____________________________________14II. Supplementary Tables______________________________________________________________15 References______________________________________________________________________________16 LABOR MARKET CHALLENGES IN THE BAHAMAS:ASSESSING SOURCES OF VULNERABLE ANDINFORMAL EMPLOYMENT1 The Bahamas’ heavy reliance on the service sector, often characterized by high labor intensity,seasonality, and the need for work beyond standard hours, creates conditions fornon-standard andrelatively unstable jobs.Self-employmentaccounts for nearly one-fifth of private-sector employmentandhas become widespread inservices andconstruction. The analysis documents thatwhilethe self-employed are especially exposed to vulnerability and informality, informal work arrangements alsoaffect many dependent private workers.A decompositionexerciseshowsthatthe negative earnings gapof self-employed with respect to private dependent employees is not fully explained by observablecharacteristics, suggesting a role for differential returns to skills and other structural barriers. A.Background 1.The Bahamas’ economy relies on services,with jobs that can be relatively unstable.Morethan 50 percent of employment in The Bahamas isdirectly or indirectly linked to tourism.Thisand otherservices are often characterized by relatively highlabor intensity, seasonal work, outsourcing practices,and the need for work beyond standard hours, all ofwhich creates conditions for the use of flexible laborarrangements. Meanwhile, self-employment hasbecome widespread in the construction sector,through intensive project-based hiring. Whileflexibility can be a natural response to the seasonaland fluctuating demand of tourism-related industries,short-term or temporary job contracts may lead toincome instability and limited career mobility. Similarconsequences could be associated with self-employment and informaljobs. 2.Non-standard work arrangementscanundermine productivity growth.The internationalliterature finds that firms that rely heavily on non-standard work, such as temporary or flexible contracts,tend to underinvest in employee training, innovation, and productivity-enhancing technologies.2International evidence also shows that firms using higherproportions of flexible labor,experience lower productivity growth(Kleinknecht et al.(2006)).Understanding employment-related challenges is relevant for The Bahamas, where laborproductivity has generally underperformed regional peers over the past two decades and hasrecovered slowly after the pandemic. 3.Human capital shortcomings are a keyobstacle for businesses in The Bahamas. According to the2020Innovation, Firm Performanceand Gender Survey, 76 percent of firms in TheBahamas perceive the qualification of employees asa main barrier to innovation, above the Caribbeanaverage. When asked abo