美国市场洞察

UNITED STATES July 2009 This Market Insight is one of an ongoing series of market profiles produced by the Market Intelligence Group [MIG] ofthe European Travel Commission [ETC]. New market profiles will be added to the series and updated at regular The members of the MIG comprise the Research Directors of the 39 national Tourist Offices (NTOs) who are membersof ETC. The group regularly commissions and publishes market intelligence studies, handbooks on methodologiesand best practice, and facilitates the exchange of European tourism statistics on the ‘TourMIS’ web platform. More information on ETC’s programme of market intelligence activities - including links to studies and sources ofEuropean tourism statistics - can be found on the organisation’s corporate website:http://www.etc-corporate.org. OVERVIEW •With an expenditure of US$80.0 bn in 2008 (+5.0% on 2007), the USA continues to be ranked second in theworld (after Germany) by the World Tourism Organization, in terms of spending on travel abroad The proportion of US citizens holding valid passports has risen rapidly in the last few years, especiallysince the implementation of the WHTI (see below), to around one third of the total population. •US outbound travel achieved a record 64.1 mn trips in 2007, but fell by 1% to 63.6 mn in 2008. Thenumbers of overseas trips began to fall in July 2008, a trend which continued through the first four months •Trips to Europe fell by 9% to 11.2 mn in 2008 and were still 16% short of their peak in 2000. They fell afurther 10% in the first four months of 2009. The decline in value of the US dollar and the rise in air fares (caused by the increase in international oilprices) made Europe a more expensive destination for Americans in 2005-07, dampening demand. The •Also positive is the fact that, after falling to a record low in February 2009, US consumer confidence hasbeen rising steadily, reaching 40.8 in April and 54.9 in May (1985 = 100). •Some industry observers believe we will see the start of a recovery in US outbound travel this year, but itseems safe to assume that relatively close destinations – such as the Caribbean and Central America – However, there are still good opportunities in tapping the growing numbers of 'baby boomers' in the USA,many of whom have much more time for travel abroad and are looking to visit longer-haul destinations. COUNTRY PROFILE Age •The rate of population growth is about 1.0% a year (close to the world average). According to the UN, thenumbers of children and young people (aged 0-24) will grow by about 3% between 2009 and 2020, while thenumbers of those aged over 60 will increase by 37%. There will be an increase of 12.5% in people aged Ancestry Language & Religion •English, Spanish (spoken by a sizeable minority). In the 2000 census, 81% of respondents said they spokeonly English at home, and 11% spoke Spanish. 80% of respondents described themselves as Christian(26% Roman Catholic), 5% as belonging to other religions and 15% as being atheist or agnostic. Economic Data US Economy 2008-09 •The USA remains by far the largest and most powerful economy in the world. Although the financial crisis and economic downturn very largely originated in the USA, it is expected toweather the storm relatively easily. The IMF (in July 2009) expects real GDP to fall by 'just' 2.6% in 2009 •Nevertheless, the effect on consumers is expected to be serious and prolonged. In recent months over500,000 people have been losing their jobs every month and over 200,000 have been losing their homes.Unemployment is expected to rise to over 10% in 2010. Although most people will escape the worst effects •In the longer term, too, the outlook for consumer spending is weaker than it has been in recent years.Taxation will increase, credit will remain scarce and may become expensive, and the savings rate needs to •Inflation rose to 4% in 2008, largely because of the rise in international oil and commodity prices, but hasfallen back quickly. Prices are expected to fall slightly in 2009. •Between 2002 and the middle of 2008, the steady decline in the US dollar (especially against the euro andsterling) made outbound travel much more expensive. This process went into reverse in the second half of2008 and (more erratically) the first four months of 2009. The recovery in the exchange rate of the US TRAVEL PROFILE US Outbound Trips •The monthly figures for outbound travel have been showing declines since July 2008. In 2008 as a whole,total outbound trips, as well as total overseas trips, fell by 1%, while trips to Canada were down 7% andtrips to Mexico were up 4%. In the first four months of 2009, total overseas trips declined by 7%. •Trips to Europe in 2008 fell by 9% and were still 16% short of their peak in 2000. They declined a further10% in the first four months of 2009. In 2008, Europe accounted for 41% of overseas trips by air (i.e. excluding trips to Canada and Mexico),compared with 18%