巴西市场洞察

BRAZIL July 2009 This Market Insight is one of an ongoing series of market profiles produced by the Market Intelligence Group [MIG] ofthe European Travel Commission [ETC]. New market profiles will be added to the series and updated at regular The members of the MIG comprise the Research Directors of the 39 National Tourist Offices (NTOs) who are membersof ETC. The group regularly commissions and publishes market intelligence studies, handbooks on methodologies and best practice, and facilitates the exchange of European tourism statistics on the ‘TourMIS’ web platform. More information on ETC’s programme of market intelligence activities - including links to studies and sources ofEuropean tourism statistics - can be found on the organisation’s corporate website:http://www.etc-corporate.org. OVERVIEW •Brazil, like the USA, is a country in which domestic travel dwarfs international travel. Nevertheless, itgenerated 5.2 mn outbound trips in 2007, involving spending of US$8.2 bn – making it by far the largestmarket in South America.•Preliminary estimates suggest an increase of 2% outbound trips in 2008, to 5.25 mn, and an increase of33.5% in spending (in US dollar terms), to US$11.0 bn.•Brazil is regarded as a high-risk travel market, susceptible to boom-bust cycles. It went through a bust in1999-2002 and a rapid recovery in 2003-05, followed by more moderate growth in 2006-08, supported by COUNTRY PROFILE Age Ancestry Language and Religion •The national language is Portuguese. As second, third or fourth generation immigrants, many Braziliansare bilingual, and many also speak English, French, Italian and/or Spanish reasonably well. Most Brazilians are Christians. In the Census of 2000, 74% declared themselves to be Catholics,15% Protestants, 3% of other religions and 7% agnostics or atheists. • Economic Data Brazil's Economy 2008-09 •Brazil is by far the largest economy in South America. •Analysts tend to rate Brazil's long-term economic prospects very highly (see, for instance, GoldmanSach's influential 2003'Dreaming of BRICs' prognosis for Brazil, Russia, India and China). It has plenty ofvaluable commodities and a wide range of successful industries. In recent years the nation's financeshave been placed on a sound basis and inflation – for long the national curse – curbed, boosting the •Brazil is suffering from the world economic downturn (real GDP fell by 3.6% in Q4 2008 and 1.8% inQ1 2009). However, the IMF (in April 2009) expects its recession to be relatively mild and short-lived, witha decline in real GDP of just 1.3% in 2009 and an increase of 2.2% in 2010. The national development bank, Although inflation has been curbed, interest rates remain high and consumer credit is expensive. TRAVEL PROFILE Brazilian Outbound Trips •The Brazilian outbound travel market is dwarfed by the domestic market: Embratur estimates that in 2007Brazilians made 5.1 mn outbound trips, compared with 63.1 mn domestic trips. Final data for 2008 is not yet available, but preliminary estimates suggest an increase of 2% in outboundtrips, to 5.25 million – a new record. However, this was well below initial expectations of +8%. •The Brazilian outbound travel market is regarded as very erratic. After an economic crisis and majordevaluation in January 1999, which undermined confidence and drastically reduced the purchasing powerof thereal, total outbound trips fell from 4.2 mn in 1998 to 2.9 mn in 1999, and they remained low in 2001- 02 because of the fears aroused by the Argentine economic collapse and the continued erosion in the valueof thereal. With the return of economic confidence and the recovery in the value of thereal, outbound •Outbound travel was constrained in 2006-08 by a shortage of international flight capacity, especially afterthe collapse of Varig (the national carrier) – see below. This helps to explain the moderate outbound Leading Destinations These figures represent arrivals as reported by the destinations (‘tourists at frontiers’, except for the UKand Uruguay, which count ‘visitors at frontiers’, and Portugal, Germany and the Netherlands, which count‘tourists at all accommodation establishments’). They probably represent the top 12 destinations, with the •As a comparison, Embratur's outbound travel survey of 2007 ranked the top 10 destinations as follows:USA (954,000 trips), Argentina (687,000), France (407,000), Uruguay (384,000), Portugal (349,000),Spain (307,000), Italy (270,000), Germany (210,000), UK (208,000), Chile (207,000). •Among European destinations, annual arrivals are roughly on the following scale:Over 200,000France, Portugal, Spain, Italy100,000-200,000Germany, UK40,000-80,000Austria, Netherlands, Switzerland20,000-40,000Belgium, Netherlands, Russia, Turkey10,000-20,000Finland, Ireland, Sweden, Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Poland5,000-10,000Croatia, Denmark, Norway,2,500-5,000Bulgaria, Romania,Below 2,500Albania, Cyprus, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Li