日本市场洞察

JAPAN September 2013 This Market Insight is one of an ongoing series of market profiles produced by the Market Intelligence Group [MIG] ofthe European Travel Commission [ETC]. New market profiles are added to the series and updated at regular intervals.Market Insights are freely available to the public. The members of the MIG comprise the Research Directors of the 33 National Tourist Offices (NTOs) who are membersof ETC. The group regularly commissions and publishes market intelligence studies, handbooks on methodologiesand best practice, and facilitates the exchange of European tourism statistics and other indicators. A complete overview of ETC’s programme of market intelligence activities – including links to studies and sources ofEuropean tourism statistics – can be found on the organisation’s corporate website:www.etc-corporate.org. OVERVIEW •Japan used to be the world's third largest market in terms of spending on international tourism,according to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), but it has lost ground since the late-1990s: it •The market has been on a roller-coaster ride since 2000, with sharp declines in outbound trips in2001-02 (after 9/11), 2003 (the SARS epidemic) and 2008-09 (the world financial crisis), followed byrapid recoveries. Accordingly, despite a brief drop in demand following the Tohoku earthquake andtsunami in 2011, outbound trips staged a strong recovery in 2010-12, reaching a record 18.5 mn in •Since Q3 2012 it has been falling heavily again, because of a big decline in the value of the yen andpolitical tensions with two of Japan's three most important destinations – China and South Korea. It is •In recent years there has been a shift in favour of short-haul destinations, for both leisure andbusiness travel – in line with the growth in travel by less affluent Japanese – but in this context tripsto Europe have held up well. Over the last ten years the number of trips to Europe increased by 3%,while those to North America fell by 41%, to Oceania by 44% and to Hawaii, Guam and Saipan by about •Total trips to Europe may be estimated at around 3.5 mn a year. The leading destinations areGermany and France, followed by Spain, Italy, Switzerland, the UK and Austria, roughly in that order.The fastest growing European destinations since 2000 have been Turkey, Spain, Croatia and Slovenia.Most other destinations in Western Europe have suffered declines over this period, ranging up to -5% •Spending on tourism abroad recovered to US$27.9 bn (€21.7 bn) in 2012 – roughly the same as in2010, 2008 and 2003 in US dollar terms, and still short of the US$31.9 bn spent in 2000. In yen terms, •Average length of trip (5.4 nights in 2012 to destinations worldwide, and 7.8 nights for trips to Europe)has also tended to fall in recent years, partly reflecting the trend towards short-haul destinations. •Growth in recent years is largely attributed to an increase in trips by Japanese already used totravelling abroad – and, in particular, independent travellers. It is also concentrated among the over- •In 2012, online travel increased its share of total trip volume to over 60% for the first time ever, and •The Japanese outbound travel market has essentially stagnated since the late 1990s. The fact thatonly 24% of Japanese have travelled abroad in the last five years suggests there is plenty of scope forgrowth, but enthusiasm for travel (particularly among the young) seems to have waned. On the other ECONOMIC PROFILE Currency •During the long slide of the US dollar in 2002-08, the yen broadly followed the dollar down(weakening, therefore, against the euro, sterling, the Canadian and Australian dollars, the Chinese •When the world financial crisis struck in the last four months of 2008, the yen rose dramaticallyagainst the US dollar, from ¥110 per US$ in August to ¥90 in December – a period in which the USdollar was itself rising against most other currencies. It continued to rise, more gradually, in 2009,2010 and 2011, before roughly stabilising in 2012. In this period it also rose against the euro, sterling •However, since the third quarter of 2012 the yen has been falling quickly. Against the US dollar, it fellfrom ¥78 in September 2012 to ¥100 in July 2013 – a level not seen since April 2009. Against the euro,it fell from ¥96 in July 2012 to ¥130 in July 2013. In August and September it stabilised around that level. Japan's Economy 2008-13 •The economy has been through a 15-year, confidence-sapping period of stagnation (low growth) anddeflation (falling prices), followed by two huge blows – the global economic slowdown in 2008-09, withshocking declines in exports and industrial production, and the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in •Any prosperity in recent years has been largely concentrated in the Tokyo-Osaka axis of Honshu. •The Liberal Party government elected under Mr. Shinzo Abe in December 2012 promised radicalsolutions, with a three-pronged policy which has become known as '