澳大利亚市场洞察

AUSTRALIA January 2014 This Market Insight is one of an ongoing series of market profiles produced by the Market Intelligence Group [MIG] ofthe European Travel Commission [ETC]. New market profiles are added to the series and updated at regular intervals. The members of the MIG comprise the Research Directors of the 33 National Tourist Offices (NTOs) who are membersof ETC. The group regularly commissions and publishes market intelligence studies, handbooks on methodologiesand best practice, and facilitates the exchange of European tourism statistics and other indicators. A complete overview of ETC’s programme of market intelligence activities – including links to studies and sources ofEuropean tourism statistics – can be found on the organisation’s corporate website:www.etc-corporate.org. OVERVIEW •With an expenditure of US$27.5 bn (€21.4 bn) in 2012, Australia was ranked 9th in the world by theWorld Tourism Organization in terms of spending on travel abroad (excluding transport). •Australia is not a large market, but it is an affluent one, and one with a very high propensity to travel.Although Australians have close historical and ethnic ties with Britain and Ireland, they travel •Australians made 8.2 mn trips abroad in 2012 (36 trips per 100 inhabitants), which reflected anaverage annual increase of 9.0% a year in 2003-12. The growth has continued almost unabated inrecent years, in spite of the world's economic problems – trips increased by an average of 8.5% a year •The most important destinations are New Zealand, the UK and the USA. The Pacific Islands and manycountries in Southeast Asia are also important holiday destinations. Figures are complicated by thelarge numbers of Australians who make stopovers in, for instance, Hong Kong, Singapore, Kuala •Departure figures suggest that, in 2012, Europe accounted for 16% of trips. Aside from the UK, themost important destinations in Europe are France, Italy, Germany, Spain, Austria, Greece, Ireland and •Over the last five years trips to Europe have been growing by about 5% a year. However, manycountries in Southeast Asia and a scattering of countries in the rest of the world – including the USA,India, Sri Lanka and South Korea – have performed much better. Countries in Europe which have ECONOMIC PROFILE Currency •The Australian dollar is a heavily traded currency that tends to fluctuate quite strongly withcommodity prices and international sentiment, sometimes for no very obvious reason. It has beenvery strong in recent years, supported by the high commodity prices seen since 2005: the 'realeffective exchange rate', according to the IMF, has risen by over 50% since then. In November 2010the Australian dollar rose above parity with the US dollar for the first time since 1982, and remainedthere until April 2013. At these levels it was high enough to punish exporters and favour travel •It has been rather more stable – but nevertheless strong – against the euro and sterling in recentyears. Against the euro, for example, it rose by 40% between 2008 and 2012, but fell back a little •Australia has generally enjoyed great prosperity over the last 20 years, based on strong internationaldemand for its mineral and agricultural commodities and its growing integration with the booming •It was one of the few economies to escape a recession in 2008-09 and, by 2012, GDP growth was backup to 3.7%. However, Australia is now entering a period of greater uncertainty. It is more exposed toa slowdown in the Chinese economy than any other country except Mongolia, according to the IMF.The boom in mining investment is coming to its natural conclusion, and although the minerals exports •The economy is nevertheless regarded as robust, with qualifications. The government is running asignificant and growing structural deficit. The banking system is highly concentrated and heavilyexposed to mortgages financed by wholesale borrowing, but is regarded as profitable, well capitalisedand efficient. The country runs a moderate deficit on its current account balance of payments, whichwould increase if commodity prices fall further – but the flexible exchange rate should in time correct •Aware of the imminent slowdown in the mining sector, the Reserve Bank of Australia has cut itsreference interest rate eight times since early 2011, to 2.5% in August 2013, in a bid to encourageeconomic activity and investments in other sectors, with little apparent effect. Business confidenceremained persistently weak in 2009-12. It improved in the second half of 2013, but this improvement •Consumers were unsettled by the financial crisis in the last quarter of 2008 and have since remainedsomewhat erratically cautious. Household debt remains high, incomes are scarcely growing, and thelabour market has been persistently slack. Retail sales were generally weak in 2013. However, the SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE •The total population in 2012 was estimated at 23.1 mn, growing by about 1.4% a year. A