澳大利亚房地产市场的未来指南：新周期开启

TheHorizon Reportsets out our viewson Australian real estate, taking you ona journey through the macro contextunderpinning investment performance,with specific insights across theoffice, industrial, retail and alternativesectors that shed light on the path toperformance in 2025 and beyond. Our contributors Looking ahead to 2025, we embarked on a creativejourney to encapsulate the essence of the real estatemarket’s transition to a new cycle. Our goal wasto visually represent this transition, highlightingboth resilience and renewal. The imagery neededto convey the gradual recovery taking shape,while also engaging our audience with a sense ofoptimism and intrigue. BEN BURSTONChief Economist,Research & Consulting JENNELLE WILSONPartner, Head ofResearch & Consulting,Queensland Partnering once again with Studio Riz, we foundinspiration in the natural cycle of a tree movingthrough the seasons. Influenced by the enchantingcherry blossoms of Toronto and the lush, iconic greentower of Sydney’s One Central Park, they envisioneda cityscape interwoven with vibrant foliage,symbolising the market’s evolution. DR TONY MCGOUGHPartner, Head ofResearch & Consulting,Victoria Using cutting-edge Generative AI, Studio Rizcreated a series of refined and captivating imagesfeatured throughout this document. The covershowcases a tower adorned with a spectrum ofseasonal hues, perfectly encapsulating the themeof renewal. The tagline, A New Cycle Dawns,aligns seamlessly with our narrative, capturing thepromise of a market poised for a brighter, moreprosperous future. FRED FITZALANHOWARDAssociate Director &Data Centre Lead APAC JENINE CRANSTONPartner, Head of ESG ENVIRONMENT, SOCIAL &GOVERNANCE OFFICE INTRODUCTION 6Key highlightsBased on our research here are theHorizontop 7 insights for 2025... 31Stay versus go?Corporate conservatism will spotlightfitted space as companies prioritisefinancial prudence and workplace quality 56Race to Net ZeroAs the 2030 target looms, regulatorypressure and skills shortages posemajor challenges ECONOMY 32Development droughtHigh vacancy rates obscure the loominglack of new supply RETAIL 10More cash, more confidenceEconomy to accelerate as real incomesreturn to growth 34CBD revivalMetro corridors will reinforce theprimacy of CBDs 36ESG drives tenantdemand in AdelaideESG considerations are not justa big city story 38Achieving more with lessKey themes from the 2024 (Y)our SpaceAustralian occupier survey 60Growth back on the menuA brighter outlook for retail sales 61Major centres have been resilientLeasing spreads and MATdemonstrate resilience INDUSTRIAL 62Retail reclaims the spotlight2025 to see the strongest investordemand since 2015 11Slaying the dragonFocus shifts to growth with rates likely tobe cut in the first half of 2025 13Finding the North Star for investorsHow far will interest rates fall, andwhat are the implications for long-terminterest rates? ALTERNATIVES 64BTR sector heats upCore capital ready to bridge the gapbetween ambition and action 42Rising imports tobolster tenant demandImproving import volumes point todemand stabilising in 2025 CAPITAL MARKETS 66Affordability stalemateMIT reform a potential game changer,but affordable housing provisions adouble-edged sword 19Have we hit the bottom yet?Divergent downturn close to the trough 44Strong supply responserebalancing the marketVacancy likely to rise further into2025, driven by rising supply ratherthan weaker demand 67Transforming housing policyAddressing the mid-market keyto widening awareness of thebenefits of BTR 46The development adjustmentNew supply wave will begin toabate in 2025 68Healthcare REITs toreturn to buyers’ circleDivestment cycle close to ending 20Time to buyWindow now open for early cycleacquisitions as the market begins to thaw 47Paved with goldIndustrial land values continueto defy gravity 69Delinking OpCo from PropCoThe opportunity to evolve ResidentialAged Care Investment 22A New Cycle DawnsSydney to lead the cyclical recovery,starting with industrial 48Rental precinct shake-upDivergence in rentperformance to deepen 25Secondary offices feel the pinchThe return of risk pricing in theMelbourne office market 50From back-up plan tonew asset classThe rise of hardstand investment 27Boosting portfolio resilienceReal estate to resume its role ofstabilising long-term portfolio returns 52Melbourne's new investment frontierGrowth of Melbourne stock in theWest and North highlights opportunityfor multiple investment strategies 70Australia’s data centre gold rushAs AI demand surges - power access,investment shifts, and Melbourne’s rapidrise drive unprecedented opportunitiesfor Australian real estate 29Ready to strikeInvestors poised to execute revisedstrategies after lengthy hiatus 3DISCOVER_TUNE Keyhighlights The level of neutral interestrates will underpin the strengthof the cyclical recovery The strength of the cyclical recovery willbe guided by the extent of interest rate cutsonce t