2015年欧洲旅游业——趋势与前景（2015年第一季度）

Quarterly Report (Q2/2014) EUROPEAN TOURISM in 2015: Quarterly Report (Q1/2015) A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Groupof theEuropean Travel Commission (ETC) Copyright © 2015 European Travel Commission European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q1/2015) All rights reserved. The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the sourceis given accurately and clearly. Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted forown or internal use only. While we encourage distribution via publicly accessible The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication donot imply the expression of any opinions whatsoever on the part of the Executive Data sources: This report includes data from the TourMISdatabase /http://www.tourmis.info, STR Global, IATA, AEA and UNWTO. Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics and Published and printed by the European Travel CommissionRue du Marché aux Herbes, 61, 1000 Brussels, BelgiumWebsite:www.etc-corporate.orgEmail:info@visiteurope.com ISSN No: 2034-9297 This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company) Cover: The riverside, Gdansk, PolandCopyright: Shutterstock / Nightman1965 In memoriam Mr Tom Ylkänen Foreword European tourism on cruising speed in 2015 The World Tourism Organization(UNWTO)expectsworld tourism to grow on average between 3.0% and4.0% in 2015 after a 4.7% increase in 2014. Growth inEuropean tourism is forecast to remain apace with the worldaverage(3.0%to 4.0%),and well above the Early results for the first months mark a positive start into2015.The majority of destinations reported positive growth in both international arrivals and overnights2. Thispositive performance is backed-up by solid results from industryperformance indicators.Air passenger traffic,accounted for an average 5.0% increase in RPK3over Intra-regional markets keep driving region’s growth As the economic outlook slowly improves, positive effectson travel can be expected in 2015. The region’s growthwill be supported by the weighty intra-regional markets, According to the European Commission’s Eurobarometer survey4, 8 in 10 European citizens will go on holiday in2015. 45.0% of respondents will do so without changingtheir plans. However, those affected by the economicsituation are more likely to change their travel patterns:one in five respondents (19.0%)intends to spend less, Source: IATA Economic indicators suggest a strong performance fromEurope’sbiggest economies:Germany,the UnitedKingdomand France.The top performing outboundmarket–Germany–keeps growing economically due toaweak euro exchange rate spurring exports,low oilpricesand stable wages.UK’s key macro indicators Source: European Commission, Flash Eurobarometer 2015 Forward momentum expected from largest long-haul market In 2015,long-haul markets remain an important driver of growth in terms ofinternational tourist arrivals to European destinations. In particular, the US marketwhose ongoing economic recovery makes Europe an attractive destination fortourists in terms of exchange rate, safety and security, the borderless Schengen Russia still remains a major source market for European destinations, however,due to the recent economically turbulent period, the majority of reporting ETCdestinations saw international arrivals and overnights plummet dramatically overthe first months in 2015. The Russian Federation’s economy is projected to plungeagain in 2015 strongly affected by GDP contraction, a higher inflation from a weakened Rouble, lower oil prices and the on-going political conflict. Considering The picture from other source markets is mixed. In Asia, the deceleration of theChinese economy did not halt continued appetite for outbound travel from thecountry,while in Japan fears of weakening travel demand due to contracted Jointly working towards the future of European tourism European tourism experienced a consistent stable growth driven by key events andtheimplementationofsuccessfulmarketingactivitiesbydestinations.Nevertheless,Europe’s position as the world’s number onetourist destination isnot incontestable. Half of all international arrivals to Europe are generated by onlya few markets–mainly intra-regional–with modest growth rates. In an ever- “Europe is a marvellous destination topromote to your clients. As ETC, we worktogether with key industry representatives who share with us a common goal inpromoting Europe. We want to be the primary partner of all relevant public and Jennifer Iduh & Stefanie Gallob (ETC Executive Unit)with the contribution of theETC Market Intelligence Group 2015 Tourism Performance Summary The majority of reporting countries appear to have had a good start to 2015 in terms ofboth visits and overnights. This will have been helped by a weaker euro which isbenefittingprice attractiveness for Eurozone destinations.Tourism Economicsestimates that the dol