全球人工智能趋势追踪：AI专家会议#61：中国大语言模型发展与资本开支趋势

Al expert call #61 - China's LLM development & capex trend China Technology Bing Duan - NIHK Quick Note bing.duan1@nomura.com+852 2252 2141Ethan Zhang - NIHK ByteDance (unlisted).The key topics included ByteDance's capex outlook and breakdown,allocation of chips used for training and inference, and progress of ByteDance's LLMs.Below, we provide the key takeaways:Capexbreakdownfor2025 ethan.zhang@nomura.com+852 2252 2157 :ThecapexforFY25wasCNY160-170bn,ofwhichc.CNY80-90bnwasforGPUserverand aboutCNY60bnforgeneral-purpose (CPU)server.:Overseas,capexfor GPU serverwas CNY50bn+, ofwhich~90%wasaccountedfor by NVIDIA (NVDA US, Not rated) GPU server, 7-8% by AMD (AMD US, Not rated)and 2% by self-developed ASIC.:IntheChina market, thecapital spent was about CNY35bn.NVIDIA(NV)GPUserveraccountedforc.CNY15bn,followedbyc.CNY8bnforCambricon(688256CH,Notrated),andc.CNY5bnforHuawei (unlisted)Ascend,aswellasCNY3-4bnforself-developed ASIC. Capexbreakdown for2026 TheoverallbudgetforFY26wasaboutCNY30Obn,whichwasliftedfromtheprevioustarget of CNY260bn, mainly due to price hike for memory. Budget for GPU serversincreased from CNY160bn to CNY180bn,whilefor general-purpose server the budgetincreased fromCNY65bn toCNY90bn,withthe rest investmentforIDCs andnetworking equipment. :For GPU servers, the overseas market had a budget of c.CNY100bn while the Chinamarket had a ~CNY75bn budget. About 65% of GPUs in the overseas market was NVGPU server, c.30% was for AMD server, and c.5% was for self-developed chips. IntheChinamarket,theGPUserverbudgetforNVwasc.CNY12-15bn,c.CNY25bnfor Cambricon,c.CNY20bnfor HuaweiAscend,and CNY15-16bnfor self-developedASIC, according to the expert. Computing power allocation for training and inference :ByteDance token consumption grew from 5 trillion at thebeginning of 2025 to 50tillion at the end-2025, and is expected to grow to 500 trillion by late 2026, accordingto the expert. : As the inference demand is increasing, the proportion of chip used for training isdecreasing.In 2026, there may be~30% of computing power allocated for training,~20% is rented through the cloud platform (Volcengine), and the rest is mainly usedforinference. ProgressofByteDanceLLMdevelopment The foundation model's capabilities have improved and reached the first-tier camp,according to the expert..ByteDance will release an integrated multimodal model soon,and the audiomodel willbeupdatedinMarch2026;moreover,therewillbesomeupdatesonroboticmodeland world model in May 2026, according to the expert. Production Complete: 2026-02-10 10:47 UTC Appendix A-1 See Disclaimers for Nomura Group entity details. Analyst Certification subject securities or issuers referred to in this Research report, (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related tothe specific recommendations or views expressed in this Research report and (3)no part of my compensation is tied to any specific investmentbanking transactions performed by Nomura Securities International, Inc., Nomura International plc or any other Nomura Group company. Important Disclosures Onlineavailability of researchand conflict-of-interestdisclosures Nomura Group research is available on www.nomuranow.com/research, Bloomberg, Capital IQ,Factset, LSEGImportant disclosures may be read at http://go.nomuranow.com/research/m/Disclosures or requested from Nomura Securities International, Inc.If you have any difficulties with the website, please email grpsupport@nomura.com for help. portion of which is generated by Investment Banking activities. Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed at the front of this report are2241restrictions on communications with covered companies,public appearances,and trading securities held bya research analyst account. Nomura Global Financial Products Inc. (NGFP) Nomura Derivative Products Inc. (NDP) and Nomura International plc. (NIplc) are registered withthe Commodities Futures Trading Commission and the National Futures Association (NFA) as swap dealers. NGFP, NDPI, and Niplc aregenerally engaged in the trading of swaps and other derivative products, any of which may be the subject of this report. Distribution of ratings (Nomura Group) 56% have been assigned a Buy rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Buy rating: 36% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 0% of companies (which are admitted to trading on a regulated market in the EEA)with this rating were supplied material services** by the Nomura Group.42% have been assigned a Neutral rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 56% of companies with 2%have been assigneda Reduce rating which,for purposes of mandatory disclosures,are classified as a Sell rating; O% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 0% of companies (which are admitted to trading on a regulated market in the EEA)with t