贸易观察报告（季刊）

Trade WatchApril-June (Q1) FY25 Trade WatchApril-June (Q1) FY25 Executive Summary The impact of international trade on development outcomes have intensified as it India’s trade landscape is rapidly evolving in response to global challenges andopportunities. In this context, the Trade Watch Quarterly Report Q1’FY25 offers acomprehensive analysis of India’s trade performance, assessing trade dynamics, India’s total trade in H1 2024 reached $576 billion. However, the current accountbalance shifted to a $9.7 billion deficit (1.1% of GDP) this quarter from US$ 8.9 billion The report highlights the resilience of India’s aggregate trade performance, whichdepicts stability and a modest y-o-y increase. Imports in this quarter were primarilydriven by mineral fuels and electrical machinery, accounting for about 56%, while India exhibits Trade Intensity Index (TII) score of greater than 1 with 84 countrieswhich accounted for 67% of its exports in 2023. Moreover, India shows a comparativeadvantage (RCA > 1) in 43 commodities—representing 40% of global imports —which Finally, it identifies geopolitical opportunities and challenges posed to India’s tradeand particularly examines the potential impact of the Carbon Border Adjustment ADVISORY BOARD HIGHLIGHTS 1.India’s total trade in H1 2024 experienced a 5.45% y-o-y increase compared to 2023.2.Merchandise imports showed consistent growth, with Q1 FY25 exports rising by5.95% to $110 billion and imports increasing by 8.40% to $173 billion, leading to agrowing trade imbalance.3.In Q1 FY25, Indian iron and steel exports experienced a massive decline (33%)primarily due to weak domestic demand and excess capacity in China whichresulted in an oversupply of steel in the global markets.4.In Q1 FY25, North America accounted for 21% of India’s exports, followed by the EUat 18.61%. Imports were largely from Northeast Asia, West Asia (GCC), and ASEAN,making up 51% of total imports.5.During Q1 FY25, export growth to FTA partners was notably strong at 12%, whileimport growth from these partners was 10.29%.6.India’s Trade Intensity Index (TII) > 1 with 84 countries, representing 38.82% ofglobal GDP, and 67% of India’s exports, underscores its strong global trade ties. Contents1. India’s Trade Analysis................................................................................................................................................11.1. Merchandise and Services Analysis......................................................................................................11.2 Compositional Analysis.................................................................................................................................21.3. Trade Direction..................................................................................................................................................51.4. Regional Analysis.............................................................................................................................................62. Trade with FTA Partners.......................................................................................................................................73. Scope to Leverage International Trade.....................................................................................................94. Does Export Comparative Advantage Play a Role...........................................................................105. Mapping of India’s Exports with Global Demand...............................................................................116. Comparative Analysis with Emerging Economies...........................................................................137. India’s Trade with Key Partners: Scope for Strategic Tie-ups....................................................148. Evolving Trends in India’s Global Market Share: Fall and Rise..................................................159. Is Geopolitical Turmoil Navigating Price Indices?.............................................................................1710. Potential Risks to India’s Trade due to CBAM...................................................................................1811. Recent Geopolitical Developments Affecting International Trade.......................................1912. Recent Development in India’s Trade Policy.......................................................................................21 1. India’s Trade Analysis Global growth is projected to be 3.3% in 20253, slightly higher than previous forecastsdue to unexpected resilience in the US and some large emerging markets. With India’s trade performance showed improvement in the first half of 2024 comparedto 2023. In the first half (H1) of 2024, total trade amounted to $576 billion, reflecting ay-o-y increase of 5.45%. Exports rose by 5.41% y-o-y to reach $231 billion, while imports 1.1.MERCHANDISE AND SERVICES ANALYSIS In June 2024, merchandise exports grew mod