贸易观察-季度（25财年第二季度7月至9月）

1July-September (Q2) FY25 TRADE WATCH QUARTERLY July-September (Q2) FY25 FOREWORD Trade WatchJuly-September (Q2) FY25 FOREWORD Trade WatchJuly-September (Q2) FY25 Trade WatchJuly-September (Q2) FY25 Executive Summary International trade plays a vital role in a country’s economic growth, providing accessto new markets, driving industrial development, and enhancing competitiveness. Trade Watch Quarterlyserves as a quarterly assessment, offering a snapshot ofIndia’s trade performance, highlighting trade direction and composition along with The composition of exports has remained largely stable this quarter compared toQ1, with the top 10 sectors unchanged. However, y-o-y export growth varies acrosssectors, with mineral fuels and iron & steel experiencing significant declines, including Regionally, North America and the EU continue to account for around 40% of totalexports, maintaining their position from the previous quarter. Similarly, Northeast Asia For this quarter, the publication assesses the competitiveness of the textile sector.India’s textile sector plays a crucial role in the country’s industrial output, employment, Despite being one of India’s oldest industries, its share in global trade remains modestat 4%, making it the sixth-largest textile and apparel exporter. India holds strongcompetitiveness in natural fiber-based textiles, particularly cotton and carpets, but India has a moderate presence in man-made textiles but lags in high-value technicaltextiles, a segment dominated by China, Germany, and South Korea. Although India’sparticipation in global textile value chains has grown, the sector must undergo urgent HIGHLIGHTS 1.India’s total trade grew by 5.67% in April–September 2024 compared to the sameperiod in 2023, with exports rising 5.23% and imports increasing 6.07% year-on-year.2.India’s merchandise exports have remained stable, averaging $35.4 billion permonth over the past six months, while imports averaged $57.8 billion, except for asurge in August. Year on year fluctuations remain aligned with Q1 levels.3.India’s exports composition remains stable, with a drop in mineral fuels; copperentered the top ten imports due to rising infrastructure demand.4.USA, UAE, and the Netherlands continue to be India’s leading export markets,accounting for 33% of total exports, with the Netherlands’ growth driven bysmartphones and petroleum; the top five markets remain stable.5.China, UAE, and Russia continue to lead imports; UAE imports surged due to golddemand, while crude imports from Russia, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia slowed. A. India’s Trade Analysis..........................................................................................................................................1 1. Merchandise and Services Analysis........................................................................................................22. Compositional Analysis..................................................................................................................................33. Trade Direction.....................................................................................................................................................5 B. Thematic Analysis: Textile Sector.............................................................................................................11 1. Analyzing peer presence in exports of textile and clothing.................................................152. Mapping of India’s Textile Exports with Global Demand and Supply...........................173. India’s presence in the Global Value Chain for Textiles...........................................................19 C. Geopolitical Factors Impacting Global Trade................................................................................25 1. Geopolitical Developments........................................................................................................................262. Commodity Price Trends............................................................................................................................27 A. INDIA’S TRADE ANALYSIS A. India’s Trade Analysis Global trade exhibited a steady recovery in the first half of FY25, with both merchandiseandservices trade showing positive momentum.Merchandise trade volumesexpanded by 1.5% from April to July compared to the same period in 2023. This upward India’s total trade performance showed a y-o-y improvement in the first half of FY25.During this period, total trade amounted to $839 billion, reflecting a y-o-y increase of 1. Merchandise and Services Analysis In September 2024, exports and imports declined y-o-y by 0.3% to $34.3 billion and0.9% to $54 billion respectively (Figure 2). The imports increased steadily from $56.8billion in July to $62.5 billion in August. In Q2 FY25, exports averaged $34.2 billion permonth, remaining relatively stable, while imports experienced fluctuations. Exports India’s mont