贸易观察-季度（2015财年第四季度1月至3月）

TRADE WATCH QUARTERLY, Publication for FY25 Copyright@ NITI Aayog, 2025 Published: October 2025 NITI AayogGovernment of IndiaSansad Marg, New Delhi-110001, India TRADE WATCH QUARTERLY January - March (Q4) FY25 ADVISORY BOARD EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The World Trade Policy Uncertainty Index doubled to an average of 478 for the quarterJan-March 202512compared to the previous quarter of 237 (Oct-Dec’ 24), primarily dueto developments in trade and tariff-related policies across multiple countries.Thesedevelopmentshaveheightenedtrade-relatedrisks,affectingglobaltradeandinvestment India’s external sector continues to demonstrate resilience, with FY25 trade reaching $1.73 trillion.Exports reached $823 billion, supported by record services exports of$387.5 billion and historic highs in non-petroleum merchandise exports at $374.1billion. Imports rose to $908 billion, and the Q4 deficit moderated due to a strongperformance of services exports. India’s export growth has been driven by electricalmachinery,pharmaceuticals,and cereals,with emerging sectors like aerospace This edition focuses on the Indian leather and footwear exports, which plays a pivotalsocio-economic role, employing 4.4 million people, with nearly half of them beingwomen. India holds strong global positions in leather garments, saddlery, and leathergoods, with Tamil Nadu leading the way in production and exports. However, despitestrengths in processed leather and niche high-RCA products,India’s global leather Globally,China dominates the mass footwear and travel goods market, Vietnamexcels in textile- and leather-based footwear, and Italy leads in premium processedleather and apparel. India remains competitive in processed leathers (with a share ofover 10%) and leather apparel, but its presence in footwear, especially in non-leather andhigh-demand categories, remains limited.India imposes ~10% tariffs on key footwearinputs, while Vietnam and Italy levy near-zero rates.With similar reliance on China for HIGHLIGHTS 1.India’s total trade in FY25 stood at$1.73 trillion, growing 6% y-o-y, with exportsat $823 bn and imports at $908 bn, resulting in a trade deficit of $84.8 bn. 2.Services exports reached a record $387.5 bnin FY25, up 13.6% y-o-y, supportedby IT, telecom, and business services, while services imports rose modestly, 3.Merchandise exports contracted in Q4 FY25 (–4.3% y-o-y) due to declines inexportsof mineral fuels(–37.8%)and organic chemicals(–14.5%).Imports,however, grew by 1.84% y-o-y, driven by higher demand for inorganic chemicals, 4.India’s merchandise export basket reflects a structural mismatch withglobal demand, nearly 66% ($15.8 trillion) of global imports are concentratedin products where India’s share is only 0.2%, while just 3% ($1.5 trillion) of global 5.India’s overall exports grew at 10% CAGR (2020–24), outpacing the worldimport CAGR of 6%; emerging sectors like aerospace (44% CAGR, $7.4 bn) and 6.Import patterns shifted as theUAE overtook Russiaas India’s second-largestsource, driven by gold imports under CEPA duty benefits, while imports from 7.India’s leather & footwear exports stood at$5.5 bn in 2024, just1.8% of globaltradeworth $296.5 bn, with exports concentrated in HS 4202 (travel goods) and 8.India showsrevealed comparative advantagein leather apparel (RCA 5.35),saddlery (RCA 4.18), and prepared leathers (RCAs >6). However, these are niche, 9.India’s footwear exportsremain concentrated in leather products, while non-leather footwear exports are very low, despite strong global demand (USD110bn market). In 2024, the United States, Germany, France, and Italy together 10.India hasaligned its shift toward value-added exports(leather articles andfootwear) with global trends but has not translated this into market share gains, 11.India needs tostrengthen skilling and technology adoption by expandingapprenticeship-based training, promoting R&D for design innovation, and 12.India mustmodernise fragmented MSME clusters with vertical industrialcomplexesand plug-and-play parks offering shared testing,compliance, Contents A. India’s Trade Analysis............................................................................................................ 1 1. Merchandise and Services Analysis.......................................................................................... 12. Compositional Analysis.................................................................................................................... 33. Trade Direction....................................................................................................................................... 54. Regional Analysis................................................................................................................................. 75. Merchandise Trade with FTA Partners................................................................................... 86. India’s Merchandise Exports Presence Globally......................