2025年餐饮业回顾

Restaurant Industry 2025 Year in Review Restaurant Sector Insights Overview The U.S. macroeconomic backdrop, heading into the end of 2025, continued to challenge the restaurant sector in both the operating and deal environments. The Federal Reservedelivered three 25bps interest rate cuts in 2025 (75 bps total), with the last one signaling a “tougher rough ahead” for further reductions. This limited monetary easing, coupledwith a softening labor market and rising unemployment, has stagnated growth in consumer discretionary income. Consumer spending patterns have consequently shifted: more M&A activity in the U.S. restaurant sector showed early momentum in 2025 but slowed markedly as the year progressed. After a strong deal pace in Q1, transaction flow stalledamid tariff-related volatility from March to May, when uncertainty prompted roughly 30% of companies to pause or revisit deals. While aggregate deal value is up year-over-year,deal volume has not rebounded. Globally, first-half 2025 M&A volumes were about 10% lower than in the same period of 2024 even as total deal value rose 15%, and in therestaurant sector, total transaction count declined roughly 30%, year-over-year through late 2025. Deals are still getting done, but the market is increasingly bifurcated: acquirers Despite an uptick in select headline deals, overall sector fundamentals remained subdued in 2025. U.S. restaurant performance softened as consumers pulled back: a majority ofoperators reported deteriorating business conditions, with nearly two-thirds of restaurants seeing declines in customer traffic this year. Many segments posted flat or negativesame-store sales growth, for example fast-casual and quick-service brands struggled to boost sales amid cautious spending. Value-focused categories like casual dining managedmodest gains by leveraging promotions, and affordability, against a social backdrop to sustain traffic. In this environment, investor focus and valuations have become increasinglypolarized. Scaled, franchise-driven restaurant brands remain strongly favored by buyers and continue to command premium deal multiples. Franchise assets are attractive for their Key Sector Themes in 2025Same-Store Sales GrowthPublic Sector Performance Tightened consumer spending againstelevated price environment directly Restaurant and grocery inflation costscontinue to moderate AI and digitally-enabled concepts arewinning the consumer while harvesting Executive Summary Continued bifurcation in M&A market,favoring differentiated, scalable and Private credit capturing share of debtfinancing opportunities as bank appetite Challenging Traffic Environment Persists Restaurant Sector Monthly SSS Trends Improving SSS in Casual, Fast Casual, and Quick Service categories underscore consumer preference for value and convenience,while recent gains in Fine Dining suggest a rebound at the premium end, even as other upscale segments remain under pressure Restaurant and Grocery Inflation Normalize The Gap Narrows The gap between restaurant andgrocery inflation has narrowed bynearly 300bps since January 2024due to rising grocery costs. Theincrease in grocery costs is primarily Over the past five years, the averagerestaurant has experienced a 35% 50% of restaurants plan to raisemenu prices further if inflationpersists. It is estimated that, tomaintain a modest 5% profit margin, Sales Growth Remains Positive DespiteTraffic Declines and Ongoing Cost Pressure Food prices in 2025 have stabilized above historical levels, with modestupward pressure driven by new import taxesCumulative food cost increases have driven significant menu price inflation,with menu prices up ~42% from 2020-2025, nearly 2x overall inflation(~22%) Restaurants are Emphasizing Value in Response to After nearly three years of increasing menu prices, restaurant chains are combatting declining traffic by enticing inflation-weary Menu prices at large restaurant chains have risen by ~30% on average since 2019, with restaurants offering promotional offers tomitigate declining traffic Consumers are weighing quality and experience first, followed by comparative menu prices and low prices, as menu priceshave increased. Value-oriented visits accounted for ~30% of commercial foodservice traffic in the past 12 months, thehighest level observed in five decades Share of deal-driven traffic has risen by 3.1% since 2022, marking the strongest surge since the Great Recession of 2008–2010 of diners prefer to receive Value offerings are helping drive traffic, with consumer-perceived value menu traffic increasing 1% sector-wide in the quarterending June 2025 Select Promotions Across Restaurant Chains $10.99 Two For YouEnjoy half a sandwich,half salad or a cup of $10.99 3 for MeChoose your beverage,starter and main $7 Luxe Cravings Box $8.99 Lunch Plate $12.99 Create Your Own Pasta McDouble / McChicken,small fries, four-pieceChicken McNuggets, Pick your favorite pasta,sauce a